Calling the shots
This is your day to call the shots, so you should.
O.K., if I had an ounce of self-restraint left before the Wisconsin primary coming up this Tuesday, this fortune cookie just eliminated it.
I’m going to call the shots.
What shots would I like to call today?
The 2012 Presidential election, of course.
Something I have little control over, so the results are bound to be amusing.
Calling the Shots
If you call the shots, you are in charge and you tell people what to do.
But calling the shots can also mean using a psychological trick: you “call the shot” in advance, forecasting a result, hoping to influence people’s choices, so that you encourage your favored result.
Calling the Shots in Advance
And that seems to be what the Republican Party is doing right now- calling the shots in advance.
The Republican establishment probably never planned that Mitt Romney would get serious competition from any of his running mates, and now that he’s getting some serious competition from Rick Santorum, they are scrambling to discourage that. They are bringing out the big guns, party leaders who are endorsing Mitt Romney prematurely, when Mitt has only 565 of the necessary 1144 delegates to win the primary.
Republicans have not bargained on an awakening of the American people, a scenario in which politicians on BOTH sides of the aisle would have to become more responsive to their electorates (and responsive to Tea Party supporters) than they previously had been. It’s a lot easier to sit in comfy chairs making small polite concessions to opponents followed by socializing after work, than to implement the big changes and make the big cuts that many Americans want in 2012, and which will cut some of the frills in Washington, too.
So many Republicans are rallying behind Mitt Romney prematurely, hoping to discourage Rick Santorum, and hoping that Rick Santorum will concede and quit. This would avoid a long, drawn-out primary, followed by a “brokered” or “contested” convention, during which the Republican establishment will have less control over the results, and the American people will have more control over the results.
Calling the shots in advance did not work so well 4 years ago, when everybody was forecasting that Hillary Clinton would be the nominee. Obama was a nobody. Yet we have President Nobody issuing mandates today, and the Supreme Court struggling to read the 2700 pages of his NobodyCares for ObamaCare. Calling the Shots in advance backfired on the Democrats in 2008.
Then there was President Harding in 1920, who was a nobody with only 20% of the candidates compared with his opponent (General Leonard Wood) in the primary. If anybody were calling the shots in advance back then, he would have lost the primary. But what happened? Nobody won the initial race, and they went to a contested or brokered convention, where Harding got 70% of the votes and became President.
Now, for the first time since 1920, we could be heading for a contested or brokered convention again. Although Mitt Romney unquestionably has the most delegates at this time, it is not clear whether Romney will be able to reach the 1144 required to win.
1144 out of 2286 total delegates are needed to win; Romney has 565; Santorum has 256; Gingrich has 141; Paul has 66, and thus 1258 delegates are still up for grabs. In other words, any candidate, including one starting with zero delegates today, could still be the winner.
Top Republicans are panicking and calling for an end to the primary battle, uniting behind Romney.
Newt Gingrich has slowed down his campaign, planning to sit out the fight between Romney and Santorum, then join back in for the contested convention.
Rick Santorum vows to stay in the race, even if he does not win Wisconsin this Tuesday.
Everybody wants to forecast events before they occur. I will join them.
- Santorum is rapidly gaining on Romney: Gallup Polls indicate that Romney and Santorum are competing closely, and are alternating in the lead during the last two months.
- Santorum plans to stay in the election. So, there could well be a brokered convention.
- Santorum is a true conservative. Tea party likes him. Evangelicals like him.
- Gallup also says that most Americans are conservative: 40% conservative, 35% moderate, and only 21% liberal. Conservatives Remain the Largest Ideological Group in U.S.
- Romney is a question mark. Romney has a shifting record that does not guarantee his sticking to promises any better than Obama has done. He takes direction well and changes direction well. He would be better than Obama, but not better than Santorum.
- Even Gingrich is expecting a brokered convention; in fact, he is counting on it, while he takes a breather.
Put it all together, and I say:
- There will be a brokered convention. Romney will not get 1144 delegates. Santorum will not quit the primary.
- At the brokered convention, people will choose what they want: a conservative, Rick Santorum.
- The Republican establishment will have to make a correction to accommodate the Tea Party: less frills for everyone in Washington.
- Santorum will decimate Obama in the November election. Even moderates have stopped liking Obama; he has simply gone
too far for everyone. D’Souza has branded Obama as an anti-colonialist whose goal is to readjust America’s standing in the world – not in a positive direction. When the movie 2016 comes out this summer, Obama’s presidency will be over.
- We will all celebrate the fact that our system of government did in fact protect the people of the United States as the Founding Fathers designed it to do.
And if I’m Wrong?
If I am wrong, Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee.
If he beats Obama, since trying to prove why he is different from Obama on central issues like ObamaCare and Abortion will not be easy, he will do one of two things:
Fulfill all the promises he made during the election, unlike his predecessor Obama.
Change his mind and continue Obama’s policies, or something akin to them.