Four Years Ago: Hillary, Like Romney, Was the Presumed Candidate
Where is This Election Headed?
April 22, 2008:
In April of 2008, Hillary and Barak were neck-in-neck. Hillary won the Pennsylvania Primary. Then the Clinton campaign raised another $10 million.
Hillary and Barak continued to battle it out, about 1 percentage point apart, as they had been throughout the primary campaign. Hillary had been the presumed nominee for quite some time before the primary, and many believed that she could not lose.
Obama was giving her a run for her money and edging her out, but only by about 1%, and neither Hillary nor supporters were ready to concede. The race was close. Estimated Delegate Score Card over time can be found here.
The media was not talking about the primary “dragging out,” or about any need to “coalesce behind one candidate” yet.
The battle continued until Obama had enough delegates to win the primary, and he only won by a very slim margin. Hillary only conceded on June 7, 2008, 4 days after Barak secured enough delegates to claim the nomination on June 3, 2008.
Who is Leading the Republican Primary Race Today?
Short Answer: Depends on who’s counting and depends on how you classify the votes.
If the mainstream media and the Republican establishment are counting (Romney supporters), Romney is the leading candidate. If Conservatives,Tea Party, and evangelicals are counting, the race is way too young to call. 50-60% of the delegates have not yet been assigned, and anything could happen. It’s much too early to tell.
How Do You Classify the Votes?
If all four candidates attract a random segment of the American vote, and Santorum’s recent bowing out spreads the votes evenly among all candidates, then Romney is winning.
But if Conservatives are wedded to voting for conservatives like Santorum/Gingrich/Paul, and moderates are voting for Romney, then the exit of one conservative candidate will swing all the conservative votes to the next conservative candidate, and not to Romney. That is certainly the case with my vote: in the first place, my vote goes to Santorum. Failing that, to Gingrich. Failing that to Paul. Finally, failing that, to Romney. By this argument (see chart below), Romney has only 23-25% of the vote so far, and the Conservatives have 16-26% of the vote. Again, way too early to call. Conservatives and Romney neck-in-neck, and we have not even heard from 49-61% of America yet!
Uncertainty in the Delegate Counts
The Media has been very quick to assign delegates which are in any way uncertain, uncommitted or disputed, to Romney. Why? That will be discussed later below. Those mainstream media counts can be found at Wikipedia.
Conservative counts, on the other hand are made by more stringent criteria. The Santorum campaign count, for example, shows remarkably different numbers.
The bottom line is, however, that with 49 to 61% of the delegates still unassigned, and with conservative states like Texas (155 delegates available with winner-takes-all) still in the offing, the race if far from over, unless the media (and the Republican establishment) manages to convince everyone that the race is over before it really is.
Here is the range of numbers claimed by various sources, depending on your source of delegate counts and assignment of contested delegates:
|Candidate||Number of delegates||Percentage of Total (2286) Delegates|
|Delegates still unassigned||1124-1390||49-61%|
Bottom Line Today:
Conservatives could be leading Romney by a much larger margin than Barak had on Hillary in 2008.
Why are some conservatives giving up?
Do they believe the media already?
Do they want to let the Republican establishment to steer the nomination, instead of the voters steering it?
It’s still early, and the race is far from over.
It’s not over until the fat lady sings (me). 🙂
Stay in there, Rick/Newt/Ron!
A conservative coalition (if you go by Rick Santorum’s numbers) is leading with a slight edge against Romney so far, just as Barak was leading against Hillary in April 2008.
If you guys stay in there, you can prevent Romney from getting the 1144 delegates he needs for the nomination. BTW, Rick’s suspended campaign could also be un-suspended at a later date.
Then, when nobody has the required 1144 delegates, the process starts again at the brokered convention. As the candidates with least delegates are eliminated, it will boil down to one conservative against Romney, and that conservative will have a great chance of defeating Romney. America is ready for a real change.
The delegate counts so far tell us that Americans are definitely waffling on Romney; they prefer a true conservative. Tea Party candidates, evangelicals, and many other conservatives are nervous about Romney’s liberal past and the reliability of his new found conservative “conversion.”
We’ve just had a taste of somebody who promises one thing but delivers quite another- Obama.
Not to say that Romney’s recent commitments to conservatism are not appreciated or are not genuine.
We’re just a bit nervous about how reliable Romney’s recent “conversion” to conservatism is, given his past.
Time to Put America Ahead of Personal Success
Rick/Newt/Ron should team up to stay in the race for the sole purpose of preventing Romney from acquiring the 1144 delegates he needs for nomination. In 1920, there was a brokered convention where the previous underdog candidate eventually won. There would still be hope of putting a true conservative in the White House. Even if a particular candidate is not that person, they will have contributed to the restoration of our great nation by contributing to the election of another conservative.
What Have You Got Against Mitt Romney?
Well, up front let us say that if Mitt Romney is nominated, we should all back him, campaign for him, and elect him as President of the United States.
Why? Because he has stated that he will oppose federal funding of abortion, that he will repeal ObamaCare, and that he will promote fiscal responsibility and limited government. As opposed to Obama, who has stated (and done) the complete opposite.
But given Mitt Ronmey’s past positions, I’m just a bit nervous about how reliable Romney’s recent “conversion” to conservatism is. In my mind, the Presidency should be given to someone we are very sure of. More discussion of Romney at Committment to Truth; Romney vs Santorum.
“Social issues” (morality) come before economic issues because common sense and wisdom tell us what God already knows: that social issues drive the economics of a nation, and are the springboard from which a stable economy develops. If you kill all your future citizens, your economy will not prosper. If you overspend on an inefficient blundering health care system which provides free abortion, contraception and sterilization, your economy will take a blow. If you deny citizens freedom of conscience, sweeping Catholic hospital closings may result. “Social issues” are the first domino with the power to take the entire economy down.
Judeo-Christian morality, on which conservatism and the Constitution of the United States are based, is a success manual given to us by a loving God, which provides the wisdom needed to avoid pitfalls both personal and national.
Why Would the Media or the Republican Establishment Want to Steer Us Towards Romney?
It’s pretty clear that Romney is much less conservative than the other Republican options. He has supported abortion in the past, as well as supported socialized medicine, which became a template for ObamaCare. Of course, the liberal media, as well as the liberal billionaires who fund the liberal media, would prefer Romney to the more conservative candidates, just in case Obama loses. Hard to imagine that billionaires like George Soros, who make a hobby of attempting to steer global values with their accumulated billions, would not at least cover their bets partially in both parties, Democrat and Republican.
As for the Republican establishment, there are some who are comfortably entrenched in the less-than-perfect Republican establishment and who fear the effect that too much change and too many cuts may have on their comfort. There are also those who fail to realize that the dynamics have changed in this election, that so many people are so much more committed and involved in this election. That a giant has awoken. They fear that they will lose voters in the middle if they offer a strong and principled candidate who has demonstrated a reliable track record of conservatism.
Where are We Headed?
Time, and American voters, particularly today in the pirmaries, will determine where we are headed.
It is my hope that we still have a chance to elect a conservative to defeat Obama at the end of the day.
If not, my efforts will shift to praying for Romney’s strength and his commitment to the Judeo-Christian values on which this nation was founded. Romney has not been vetted or even questioned on his support of Judeo-Christian values. See Committment to Truth; Romney vs Santorum .
If voters have already jumped on board with Mitt Romney tonight, it will be a (premature) victory for the media and for the Republican establishment. It will be a sad moment for those true conservatives who had hoped to return to the important “social issues” which determine the success of everything else.