Syte Reitz

The hand that rocks the cradle rules the world…….

Browsing Posts published in April, 2016

The Truth About Brokered Conventions

or

Media (and other) Efforts to Steer the Republican Nomination

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What IS a Brokered Convention?Slide1

The news has recently been filled with alarmism about the possibility of a Republican brokered convention occurring this summer. But since brokered conventions have been relatively rare in our nation’s history, few voters know just exactly what a brokered convention is. The media (as well as some campaigns)  feel free to define, re-define, misrepresent and mold brokered conventions into anything they would like them to be.

What a wonderful opportunity for progressives to attack and to discredit conservatives!

Progressives – both in the media and elsewhere – have managed to portray standard Republican in-party conflict resolution rules  (like the brokered convention) as something new- as rigging and manipulation by the Republican “establishment,” with a goal of excluding certain candidates or otherwise circumventing the will of the American people.

Note that all the same issues- the susceptibility of any potential brokered convention to manipulation by various groups at war for power, the relevance of primaries, and Party control by superdelegates – these issues exist as well in the Democrat Party.  Yet when it comes to these issues, media attacks seem focused primarily on the Republican Party, which is undergoing an inner battle over the preservation of conservative Judeo-Christian values. The Democrat Party actually has more authoritarian undemocratic mechanisms in place to preserve the status quo than do Republicans, yet it seems relatively protected from viscous media attack.

RNC RulesAside: The characterization of Party Rules and policy as vile and authoritarian is a “progressive” (more accurately “regressive”) view.  But defending the right of a private political group to maintain their conservative values can be defended on the basis of our system of government, a democratic republic, which was actually carefully designed with the protection of certain fundamental rights in place, safe even from election manipulation.  More on that later!

So let’s examine this question of the brokered convention- how it has been portrayed or misportrayed, why is it misportrayed, and what is a brokered convention, really?

Aside #2 : see also the previous related article,Have We Ditched Democracy? Was the Colorado Primary Rigged?, which discusses the similar misportrayal of the primary system by media and by some candidates, in an effort to damage the credibility and reputation of the Republican Party.

Portraying a Brokered Convention as a Malicious Tool

Some in the media portray the brokered convention as a malicious tool broken out by the Republican “establishment” to take the Republican nomination away from front-runner candidates whom they do not like.  They even go so far as to say that the purpose of the brokered convention is to get rid of Donald Trump.

If this were to be the case, Republicans would have to be pretty far-sighted, since brokered conventions are as old as the election of Abraham Lincoln.  The brokered convention, a tool for settling conflict methodically, is an old and fair tool and not a recent invention.

Slide2It is not highly likely that Lincoln and his colleagues were already plotting against Donald Trump when the brokered convention was first implemented! 🙂

So, no, a brokered convention was not invented for the purpose of getting rid of Donald Trump, as Newsweek would have you believe.

Portraying a Brokered Convention as an Authoritarian Throwback

Even some relatively conservative media sources are critical of the brokered convention and they imply that the implementation of these old Republican Party rules reflects the global return of authoritarian regimes worldwide.  No, you did not read that wrong, we kid you not, a  Fox News article  just juxtaposed brokered conventions with a piece on authoritarianism ‘gone global!’

finger-wagRecently, when Republican Rules Committee member Curly Haugland clarified the Rules of the Republican Party on binding of delegate votes, much of the media jumped to claim that the authoritarian Republican establishment was again trying to get rid of front-running candidates by allowing delegates to abandon the will of the people as expressed in the primaries and caucuses.

And many well educated good Americans are surprised to hear that their vote may not be binding in a Primary.  These rules of civics are no longer taught in schools, and few understand why these rules might actually be useful in protecting democracy. These rules are particularly useful in protecting the Republican Party from election fraud, which is a common technique these days, exercised by Democrats and taught by Barack Obama when he was a professor.  See Have We Ditched Democracy? Was the Colorado Primary Rigged?
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So no, authoritarian control of America is definitely not the purpose or goal of a brokered convention. No more than traffic lights or any other rules of law and order that have been adopted in this country to provide order.  So many Americans really don’t understand the purpose of a brokered convention!

Using RNC Rules and a Brokered Convention as a Campaign Tool

And it’s not just the media.
Many politicians misrepresent brokered conventions to their own advantage.

Donald Trump misrepresents brokered conventions and the Rules of the Republican Party.  Since we doubt that the Donald is simple-minded or that he has failed to do his homework on the Republican nomination process, that leaves the option that Trump could be misrepresenting facts to suit his campaign purposes.Slide2

Trump casts the routine Republican practice of reviewing and revising the Rules of the Republican Party at the start of each convention as an effort to cheat him of his “right” to be nominated.
Despite the fact that RNC rules governing whether the 2016 Convention will be brokered have been available to everyone since 2012,  Trump portrays a brokered convention as a recent plot to unseat him from what he feels as his entitled place as the Republican nominee.  Trump insists that he must be the nominee because he is the front runner at the moment (the race is not yet over), and ignores the fact that he does NOT have the 51% in eight States  that is required by RNC rules since 2012 to even enter the Convention, forget about being the only and “presumptive” Republican nominee.

Trump wants to redefine the rules to suit himself, to run the Republican nomination process like a horse race, where the leading horse can win by a nose, regardless of the margin.  Trump refuses to acknowledge that Republicans have never handled the Presidential nomination like a horse race, but have evolved rules over the years, similar to General Election rules, that require a candidate to win the favor of 51% of America before he/she can be President.  As of now, Donald Trump has won only 37 percent of Republican votes and is regarded unfavorably by more than 60 percent of general election voters.

Donald Trump has even gone so far as to suggest that his supporters will riot if  the Republican nomination is not awarded by the horse race mechanism. Sad to say, these tactics resemble Democrat Alinsky tactics more than they do those of the conservative Republican that Donald a Trump claims to be.

Slide1Most recently, Donald Trump’s campaign is accusing the Primary Process of not being democratic.  Despite the fact that Primaries are now routinely sabotaged, and some States have begun to lean toward trusting their delegates who support the Party Platform rather than trusting the results of primaries which are susceptible to outside manipulation by Democrats in 24 States – despite these facts, and despite the fact that the Republican system (and even more so the Democrat system!) have safeguards built in to retain control of the Party within the Party- Donald Trump’s attitude is to arrive, to take advantage of the Republican Party infrastructure to gain support for his campaign, to fail to educate himself on the system (or choose to ignore the system), to assume that the system was built that way to make life difficult for him, and to proclaim the system crooked for not agreeing with him. Or, at least, so he claims.Slide1

Donald Trump forgets that the Republican Party is a collection of like-minded conservative individuals who have banded together to nominate an individual who represents their values, and they have the right of free speech to nominate a person consistent with their values.  Donald forgets that he himself embodies only a portion of Republican Party Platform conservative values, and has waffled dangerously on many other Republican values, including freedom of religion, abortion and gay marriage.  Donald forgets that he himself for decades has supported people and groups who oppose Republican values.  Donald forgets that he has still failed to win the support of 51% of the American people.
Donald forgets all this, and accuses the Republican Primary process of not being democratic.  

Donald also forgets that despite his complaints, the Republican delegate system has actually given Trump a 22 Percent Bonus, according to NBC News.

Donald Trump’s outrage is contagious, is spreading to his supporters, and is very useful as well for getting free media coverage for his campaign.

The squeaky wheel often gets oiled, and so The Donald has many Americans persuaded that the Primary system is rigged.  It’s not.  See Have We Ditched Democracy? Was the Colorado Primary Rigged?

Donald is actually playing the age-old and primitive, yet effective sympathy card-  the “my dog ate my homework, the smart kid in the class is an apple-polisher (that would be Cruz), and the mean teacher (the GOP) is out to get me” routine.

Portraying the Brokered Convention as a DirtyBack Room Deal

Slide2Even reputable publications like The Atlantic have succumbed to misrepresentation of the brokered convention.  The Atlantic states that nominating Trump is better than a brokered Republican convention, and entitles their article The Convention the GOP Does Not Want.

In the article, The Atlantic not only promotes nominating Donald Trump, but also goes on to suggest that Mitt Romney is the one who is suggesting that Republicans need a brokered convention.
Mitt Romney?
A brokered convention is not held when one famous politician thinks one should be held!

Has The Atlantic not done it’s homework?

So if a Brokered Convention is Not a Dirty Deal, What IS a Brokered Convention?
Slide3

A brokered convention (related terms include contested convention, open convention) is a mechanism designed for arriving at one nominee when Party members cannot agree during the Primary season. It’s a scripted process of elimination that is based on serious mathematical theories, calculated and predetermined rules designed to be fair to everyone involved.  The brokered convention is a sort of Geneva Convention that spells out the rules of gentlemanly conduct when factions of the Party are at war.

Depending on the degree of turmoil or conflict in the party, the brokered convention can help to zero in on one of a few leading candidates, or, if there is a stubborn tug of war between two sides, the brokered convention has mechanisms for introducing a compromise candidate.

A Compromise Candidate- Isn’t that Bad?

Conflict resolution mechanisms similar to the brokered convention are used everywhere when people cannot agree, and where civilized folks want to script the battle to be fair.  Some even speculate that Pope Francis was chosen as someone who was not the favorite of either “side,” of conflicting groups.  Sometimes these “compromise” candidates can turn out to be the greatest men of history-  like Presidents Lincoln and Reagan, and Pope John Paul II.Slide1

When the Brokered Convention is Used in American Politics

In American politics, a brokered convention is held on the relatively rare occasion when Republicans simply cannot agree on a nominee throughout the primary season, when the primary votes are insufficient to finalize the choice of nominee, and when further rounds of voting are required to get 51% of Republicans behind one candidate.
A brokered convention is held when the Party is obviously split, or when the Party has too many candidates. There are measures or litmus tests of just how split the party is- these are the 1237 delegate estimates or the Rule 40(b) estimates (plurality in 5 States before 2012 and majority in 8 States since 2012).

When the primaries fail to produce a candidate supported by half ( yes half, not one third) of the Party, a brokered convention is held to follow specific rules for resolution, so that the Party would not split in half, thereby handing victory automatically to the opposing Party, the Democrats.

Slide1And speaking of the opposing Party, the  Democrat Party rules are actually less “democratic” than the Republican Party rules.  Democrat Rules are more “authoritarian,” and they have a larger proportion of unbound super delegates.  They also have brokered conventions when races are too close, and Party leadership also holds a considerable amount of power. This is not a dirty deal in either Party- why would you want to allow outside forces to take over and control a private organization, which both the Republican and Democrat Parties happen to be?

Isn’t It Unfair to Have Delegates and Superdelegates for Whom I Did Not Vote Determining the Nomination?

Well, first of all, why would you or I assume that there exists some magical source of people available to serve us, to become delegates, attend conventions, pay their own expenses, campaign, give up their free time, and otherwise participate in the giant mechanism that is the United States Presidential Election, without pay and without assistance from you and me?Who me?

If you or I were very invested in politics, we should be doing all the above things.  And if we were very active in our State’s Republican Party, we probably would have more say in choosing the delegates, or even become a delegate ourselves.  For people like me, who insist on our “Independence,” and neither belong to nor participate in the Republican Party (other than spending 15 minutes to run into a voting booth once every four years), we are lucky that they let us vote and take our opinion into account at all. Our “right to vote comes in at the General Election, and not at this private group’s nomination process- either Republican or Democrat.

Running for President is Complicated- and it’s Not Paid for by the Government

Those who are very invested in politics have to run for office, collect a million signatures, and fill out a myriad of complex application forms to be listed on the ballot in each State– a new set of complex applications and procedures in each of 50 States and 6 territories, and then they have to travel the United States campaigning for votes.

OR,

Slide1Those interested in running for the Office of President can find a private political organization like the Republican Party, or the Democrat Party, which has done all of the above for them, and which has collected lots of money to boot, and they could try to piggyback on the Republican/Democrat Party and on its reputation, which has been built by active Republicans/Democrats for decades.

If We Don’t Belong to a Group, and it’s Not a Government Group, Why Should That Group Let Us Control Them?

Those of us who do not join a political party and who do not run for political office ourselves should not be too fussy about how much power Republicans give us in return for our optional 15 minutes in the election booth.  Basically, people who are not active in an organization can have no gripe when they don’t like the decisions that have been made.

Don’t We Live in a Democracy?

It may seem fair that voters should decide everything in a democracy.  But there are very good reasons for limiting a democracy, and that’s what we have in the United States- a limited democracy, a democratic republic.  That’s something else that should be taught in Civics class in grammar school – the difference between a democracy and a democratic republic.

A democratic republic is, strictly speaking, a country that is both a republic and a democracy. It is one where ultimate authority and power is derived from the citizens, and the government itself is run through elected officials.
It is presumed that the elected officials are the experts, akin to our doctors, lawyers, architects and other experts who know more about a subject than we do and who help us ignoramuses (ignorami? 🙂 ) make good decisions in our lives.Who Rules

We citizens choose the experts whom we trust to carry out the complicated business of government for us when we cannot do everything ourselves.  And in a Presidential Primary, those experts are the delegates and superdelegates.

In a democratic republic, popular vote can choose the broad direction that citizens want to pursue, such as a conservative or liberal government, or the specific direction the government takes, like reducing federal regulation of individual lives, or expanding federal regulation of economy.  But how these general principles play out and how conflicting priorities can be resolved are things that require highly specialized and professional elected officials to work out.

The choice of candidate who will best serve the interests of a particular political party and it’s platform is not something that can be left to a popular vote, with 24 States allowing Democrats and Independents to vote in a Republican Primary and vice versa.

The Bottom Line

So the bottom line is that our nation is divided right now.  Not only between conservatives and progressives, but even within each party.

The friction, split, and superabundance of candidates in the Republican Party today is exactly the type of confusing situation for which the brokered convention was designed. We NEED and must have a brokered convention, and this is a good thing.

Slide1Those who assume that Republican liberals will win the scripted battle of the brokered convention fail to realize that there is at least an equal chance that Republican conservatives will have the opportunity to reclaim the Republican Party at the brokered convention.

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If if you shy away from a battle, you cannot win it.
That bears repeating:
If you shy away from a battle, you cannot win it.

What to Expect at a Brokered Convention

What do we expect from a brokered convention?
We expect the unexpected.
Nobody can predict the outcome of a war, civilized and scripted or not.
But seriously, there some predictions we can try to project.

So here are some generalizations that will probably hold true for Republicans as we approach the very probably brokered convention in Cleveland in July:

  • It is likely that no candidate will get the majority of 1237 (estimated) delegate votes.
  • It is likely that no candidate will satisfy the present Rule 40(b), and will not have a majority (>51%) in 8 States.
  • Therefore, NOBODY will qualify to enter the convention.Slide1

Since a convention cannot be held with NO CANDIDATES, the RNC Rules committee will be forced to change Rule 40(b) in order to allow candidates into the convention.

  • NOTE: the Party members are not doing this to be mean, authoritarian, or to exclude anybody.  They are doing it so that somebody, instead of nobody, could be considered for nomination at the convention.
  • NOTE #2: The people on the RNC Rules committee are NOT mean “establishment” Republicans, but a mix of all kinds of Republicans, including the ones who support conservatives and the ones who support Donald Trump.

Possibilities:

Curly Haugland, North Dakota

One long time member of the Rules Committee already announced a year ago, before many candidates had even announced their candidacy, a fair proposal for the Rules Committee. Curly Haugland, superdelegate from North Dakota, proposed that if nobody clears the bar of 1237 or majority in 8 States, that all candidates who received even one single delegate should be included in the first vote.
That would include in the first vote at this  point Trump (954), Cruz (562), Rubio (171), Kasich (153), Carson (9), Bush (4), Fiorina (1), Huckabee (1), and Paul(1).

There will be at least a first vote.
Since it has been established that all Republican delegates have the free will to vote their conscience, the counting of delegates can only be estimated.
Nobody can say for sure how many delegates a candidate has until after the first vote at the Cleveland Convention.
So there has to be a first vote.
And in 2016, the first vote could bring some surprises that are impossible to forecast at any point before the first vote occurs.

If anybody wins 51% in the first vote, Republicans will have a nominee.
If nobody wins the first vote, additional votes are held until one nominee gets the required majority.  Delegates can change their votes, responding to input from candidates, party leadership, and political maneuvering.Floor Fight

After the first vote, additional names can be proposed and added to the list of candidates, including individuals who did not run in the primaries.  So in 2016, for example, somebody could propose adding Sarah Palin to the list.  Scott Walker, who did not collect a single delegate before his early suspension of his campaign, could easily be returned in to the running.
It is possible that a party, gridlocked between two candidates, say Trump and Cruz, could compromise and shift votes to a compromise candidate, who could be anyone- Carson, Santorum, Fiorina, Walker, Bush, Ryan, Palin,………….or anybody else.  Candidates who have not yet been damaged by the highly combative and money-driven primary process, and who could yield an historical leader like Abraham Lincoln or Ronald Reagan, could enter the Convention as a conservative “compromise” candidate.

Alternative Surprises
Mr. Squeaky Wheel Trump is already declaring himself the Presumptive Nominee today, after yesterday’s victories in several east coast states.  Between his derision of the GOP for their 51% rules, and his accusations of rigging if he does not automatically get the nomination with 37%, who knows whether Mr. Trump could succeed in intimidating the GOP to change rules in such a way as to hand the nomination to him. Stranger things have happened in the last 8 years with Barak Obama’s Presidency, with a President taking legal liberties that never could have been imagined or forecast previously.

More Information

For more excellent information on brokered conventions and their history, see the non-partisan political information source BallotPedia on brokered conventions.

ballotpedia2-630x286

What Are Our Conservative Prospects?

So no, the brokered convention is not a dirty back room deal, but an opportunity to reclaim America and make it great, with or without Donald Trump as the Republican nominee.  One word here about Donald Trump- in order to be that leader of the future whom we are seeking, he would have to get on board with the conservative “social” issues of religious freedom, abortion and marriage, which are actually ethical, not “social” issues, which are encoded in the Republican Party Platform, and which are supported by the majority of the citizens of the United States.  We would need a “conversion of St. Donald,” or, in Donald’s language, a HUGE deal, in which Donald sold his soul to God, as most Americans do.

And, speaking of back room deals, Mitt Romney’s supporters were the ones who used a dirty back room deal in 2012 to avoid a brokered convention, in which Mitt Romney would have had to enter a fair fight to win his nomination which so many conservative Republicans opposed at that time. The Big Rule Switch of 2012 was engineered by Mitt Romney supporters, was engineered to exclude Ron Paul from the 2012 Convention, and was the real dirty back room deal that is now actually complicating life for Donald Trump, as he tries to qualify for nomination.  Romney’s maneuver also caused 4 million Republican voters to choose not to participate in the 2012 election, with the consequent sad outcome for Mr. Romney.

There is a fight going on for the soul of the GOP.

.God the Father Cima da Conegliano
Depending on what Americans choose, both in the presidential nominations and the General Election, will determine whether the Judeo-Christian principles that built America prevail, or whether regressivism and the eradication of respect for our creator, God, will win.

 

 

 

Have We Ditched Democracy?

or

Was the Colorado Primary Rigged?

Slide1

CHAOS

Our Presidential Primary process is in chaos, it seems.

Donald Trump is claiming that the Colorado Primary was rigged.
Most of the Colorado delegate votes were assigned to Ted Cruz, without holding a primary vote. Yesterday, Wyoming assigned all 14 remaining delegates to Ted Cruz at their convention.

Slide1What’s going on?  What happened to democracy? Is Donald Trump right? Is our political system completely corrupt? Do our votes even matter? These are the questions that are running through people’s minds, as we negotiate the very complicated and confusing process of Presidential Primary elections this year.

Here are some of the questions my most respected, educated, Madisonian conservative friends and relatives are voicing:

  • I have always considered that my right to vote is the way I express my voice and opinion about how our country is run. Primaries are one of these instances. One of my hesitations with a brokered convention is that if the general public chooses by consensus a candidate, will 2,500 people whom I did not elect (the delegates) decide to go against what we think?
  • There is already distrust between the general public and politicians. If a brokered convention were to choose a candidate that has not been in the lead in the primaries, I fear that this distrust would grow even more within the Republican party.question mark
  • If a brokered convention has always been an option, why have we been fooled into thinking its the primaries that really matter?
  • If a brokered convention is held this year, will this become a normal thing and will primaries even matter anymore?
  • Should we trust these delegates? Are they true conservatives, dedicated to the party platform? Are they doing it for political gain rather than true motives?

The Short Answer

The short answer is that no, democracy has not broken down, the Colorado Primary was not rigged, and that our democratic votes are not wasted.

011616-NFL-packers-win-LN-PI.vresize.1200.675.high.82

(for Tracey!)

The simplest analogy is a sports analogy.  If two teams come in very close, in a tie, the game goes into overtime and the victory is determined during the last 2 minutes of the game, has the whole game been wasted?  Should the teams just have played for 2 minutes?  Is the entire game a farce?  No, no, and no.  When the game is very close, new rules kick in to determine the winner.

And so it it with the Presidential Primaries this year.

The difference is that the United States Presidency is too important to be determined by two points or two minutes of play. The founders of our country and of the political parties have instituted a complex system of rules to handle such situations where many teams are playing in the game, which require runoff voting at a convention that continues until one team (candidate) accumulates at least 51% support. A nation cannot function well without the backing of 51% of the people.  So Donald Trump’s 35+% support these days, although a plurality, is not a majority (51%), and has never been considered enough to win the nomination.

The Presidential Race is never won by a small margin, but is designed to choose a candidate that 51% of America is prepared to support.  For more information on brokered conventions, watch for the coming article, The Truth About Brokered Conventions or Media (and other) Efforts to Steer the Republican Nomination.

And if neither leading candidate can reach 51%, sometimes a compromise candidate can be found at the brokered convention that 51%  will agree to back. This might even be someone who did not run in the primaries, but whom both warring factions are prepared to settle for.

Why Nobody Can Get to 51% This Year

There is a serious split in the Republican Party in 2016, between progressive Republicans and conservative Republicans.  (Actually, the Democrats are suffering a similar split, but our primary subject here is Republicans). Republicans also had a glut of candidates, probably because conservatives have suffered so much disillusionment with elected Republican officials in recent years that many candidates are coming forward to throw themselves on the progressive hand grenade in the Republican Party, hoping to save the party and our nation from “progressive” destruction.  As a result of this serious fundamental discord within the Party, combined with the glut of candidates, no one candidate seems to be able to collect 51% support.Here Come the Swans

This is historically an unusual situation.  This is a Black Swan, or a rare unexpected event that has transformative potential for our future.  And that potential can turn out to be quite positive. Black Swan events are usually rare, but this 2016 election cylce is bringing in a veritable flock of Black Swans.  And primary among them is the surprising development of the Presidential Primaries.

But How Can A State Award Delegates Without Holding a Primary,
or
How Can Delegates Decide Not to Represent the People’s Vote?

The Primary system is very complicated.  Few of us understand the system because of the freedom each State has to run things completely it’s own way.  So the system really varies from State to State.  We also don’t understand because in most previous elections there was enough support for one Presumptive Nominee throughout the United States, and in those cases the details of how one eccentric state like Colorado chooses to vote become unimportant, and the details do not make the news.

But now we are in overtime, and those details become important.  As we try to understand them, we ask –

Who's in Charge?Why would an eccentric State decide not to consult the people’s vote?
And why would any sane delegate decide to go against the people’s vote?

If Republican primaries were limited to registered Republican voters, it would always make sense to hold primaries and it would always make sense for delegates to listen to the opinion of the voters.
But now in 2016,progressive Democrat governments have passed laws in 24 States, to allow ANYBODY to vote in ANY primary.  So now Democrats and Independents can vote in a Republican primary.  And progressive people like Mitt Romney and Donald Trump can run for office under the Republican banner.

Slide1

TNT

Democrats now routinely use unscrupulous Alinsky Tactics in warfare against Republicans, and Democrats have even bussed in people to throw off Republican primaries.  This poses a serious threat to the Republican Party.  The reverse, Republicans voting in a Democrat Primary is also possible, but Republicans, cherishing as they do traditional Judeo-Christian values in their platform, are less likely to, and have not been accused of using such dishonest tactics.

So, at least in 24 States, Primaries are routinely sabotaged. Just this year in the liberal New Hampshire Primary, voters from neighboring States like Massachusetts were bussed in to vote, and there is video documentary published February 10, 2016, of Out of State Voters and Non-Residents Offered Ballots in New Hampshire Presidential Primary.

So apparently, attempts to hijack the Primaries are in full force today. Is this the “people’s vote” that we want to protect?

Progressives Can Run as Republican Candidates?
Progressives Can Vote in Republican Primaries?

So what, you say?
Well, so this creates a serious conflict.
We end up with Republicans who are not Republican.
We end up with candidates who do not support the Republican Platform, a platform which is still conservative.
We end up with citizens like you and me who expect certain things from a Republican candidate, because we have learned over a lifetime what Republicans supposedly represent, and surprise, surprise, the “Republican” we voted for does not act Republican, does not vote Republican, and really makes us feel like our vote was betrayed.

Slide1

Click for larger image

We end up with chaos in the Republican Party, which is exactly what the Democrats, who specialize in Alinsky Tactics, and who passed the legislation allowing anybody to vote in a Republican Primary, intended to accomplish in the Republican Party.

 

So What’s a Delegate to Do?

So what’s a delegate to do?
A delegate is torn between the democratic desire to represent his/her voters, and the democratic desire to support the Republican platform, on which many American voters rely.  Many voters are too busy to follow each candidate in great detail, and presume that a Republican candidate upholds Republican principles.

So how does a delegate serve democracy better?
By representing what random Democrats and Independents decided to vote for in the Republican primary?
Or by keeping candidates accountable to the Party Platform and to Republican principles?

When the Country is Functioning Well

When the country is functioning well, the decision of one State not to hold primaries, or the decision of a few delegates to stay faithful to the Party Platform instead of staying faithful to the voters in the Primary (who may have been bussed in from neighboring states by Democrats), these decisions do not make or break the will of the American people.  Our majority vote drowns out the noise of variation and irregularlity of individual State or individual delegate results.

When the Country is DividedSlide1

When the country or the Party is seriously divided, and nobody can get the very wisely chosen 51% that our founders specified, the race is won by a particular candidate via these very details.  The game is won during the last 2 minutes of play, and some feel that the system is unfair.
And that is where we are in 2016.

So Back to the Original Questions:

  • I have always considered that my right to vote is the way I express my voice and opinion about how our country is run. Primaries are one of these instances. One of my hesitations with a brokered convention is that if the general public chooses by consensus a candidate, will 2,500 people whom I did not elect (the delegates) decide to go against what we think?

The 2,500 people whom you did not elect (the delegates) are actually trying to represent the will of the people.  Just as we defer to experts in other spheres of life, to lawyers, stock brokers, doctors, accountants, the delegates are our Repupblican experts who actually do represent our votes.  Even when they are at war with each other, progressive Republicans against conservative Republicans, they are representing the conflict we Americans are fighting in our homes, high schools, work places and universities every day.

  • There is already distrust between the general public and politicians. If a brokered convention were to choose a candidate that has not been in the lead in the primaries, I fear that this distrust would grow even more within the Republican party.

Slide1There is a war on in the Republican Party.  Why should you trust the voters bussed in from Massachusetts more than you trust the delegates chosen by your local Republican Party?  The delegates who go to the convention are NOT Washington, D.C. elites, but are chosen in each State by Republican Party members.

  • If a brokered convention has always been an option, why have we been fooled into thinking its the primaries that really matter?

The brokered convention is only an option when no candidate can reach the 51% of Republican votes.  That has happened this year, so we need a run-off.  And you are right, if we allow ANYBODY to vote in a Republican Primary, they actually do become pretty meaningless, and we might be better off trusting the elected delegates to uphold Republican principles.  Some even say that primaries are driven by big advertising dollars, while fights at a convention are driven by ideas, so convention selection of a nominee is superior to primary selection.

  • If a brokered convention is held this year, will this become a normal thing and will primaries even matter anymore?

A brokered convention will only be held in a year when the Party is very split.  If the Party is united  during the next election, and one candidate can get their 1237 delegates or 51% of Primary votes, the Primary still remains primary, and no overtime is needed.

  • Should we trust these delegates? Are they true conservatives, dedicated to the party platform? Are they doing it for political gain rather than true motives?

Delegates are people who feel so strongly about our country that they invest massive amounts of their own time and resources to represent the Republican Party. They are not appointed out of Washington D.C., but are chosen by each State/Territory.
We can trust delegates as much or more than we can trust all voters, all politicians, or all parties.Building-Trust
The delegates will represent all the warring factions that States choose to send to the convention- there will be conservatives who defend the platform, there will be progressives who want to compromise Judeo-Christian values, and there will be people who have been bought off by monied interests.  We are at civil war.  But you cannot win a war by refusing to participate; that only ensures that you lose.  So everybody goes into the brokered convention knowing that there is a risk, that may not get what they want, but it’s worth the fight.

What Do You Think?

I think that the brokered convention is a Godsend, an opportunity for conservatives to work, pray for a Black Swan event, and take back the Republican Party to represent the present Platform, which protects religious freedom, protects life, protects traditional marriage, and advocates fiscal responsibility.

Those who fear conflict and who fear the brokered convention, cannot win the war.

Many in the media and in campaigns are exploiting the lack of knowledge that most of us have about brokered conventions.  For more on this topic, watch for the next article, which is almost ready for the presses- The Truth About Brokered Conventions or Media (and other) Efforts to Steer the Republican Nomination.

So What Do We Do?

We vote, become politically active, spend more than just your 15 minutes at the poll booth, PRAY, and help us retake this nation.
Above all, trust the process. Like all our other human institutions,  despite some human imperfections, with the help of God, it works.

God Bless America!

Battle of Wisconsin Results:

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(See Wisconsin Supreme Court Election background at Get Off Your Couch…)

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Thanks be to God,

and God Bless America!

As Wisconsin goes, so let America go.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Battle of Wisconsin

(Added 4-6-16: See Battle of Wisconsin Election Results)

What’s So Special About Wisconsin?

Wisconsin-PNGAs the presidential election season progresses and candidates proceed from state to state vying for support, there is much talk about the “Battle of Wisconsin,” portraying the primaries occurring here this Tuesday as being particularly crucial in determining the Republican nominee for the presidential election of 2016.

On the one hand, every primary/caucus in every state since Iowa gets built up by the press to heighten the excitement of the race and to boost network ratings.

On the other hand, Wisconsin does feature some characteristics that may be reflective of the evolving mind of the American people at large, and thus might give us a glimpse into what is to come.

Why is Wisconsin a Good Model for the National Struggle Between Right and Left?

A power shift from Democrats to Republicans has recently been witnessed in Wisconsin, and has made Wisconsin a sort of national battleground for the progressive agenda on more than one occasion.  This included the near-rioting union takeover of Wisconsin’s Capitol building in Madison in 2011, the Wisconsin Supreme Court Scandals on the eve of an important union ruling, and the present election to be held on Tuesday, April 5th, 2016, which represents not only the battle between Republican presidential hopefuls, but also the battle for progressive control, by hook or by crook, of the Wisconsin Supreme Court.Slide1

In each of these battles, progressive Alinsky tactics have been used by radical Democrats, testing frantically whether a minority can dominate in a democracy, by sheer bullying (Alinsky tactics). Incidentally, in Wisconsin, conservative values have won so far, despite the Alinsky tactics, and despite the progressivism of Wisconsin’s Capitol city, Madison.

Aside

It could easily be argued that Donald Trump’s rapid rise to popularity is a consequence of progressive bullying and Alinsky tactics of Democrats. Trump’s bold outspokenness and willingness to fight fire with fire, his unintimidated attitude, is garnering widespread support across the nation.

So It’s In Wisconsin…

And so it is here in Wisconsin, where close-to-rabid progressive crowds chased a Republican senator around the Capitol building, where a progressive Mayor called off  police from enforcing law and order during union demonstrations, where police were nowhere to be foundSlide2 and fire-fighters had to rescue a cornered senator, where conservative legislators had to be escorted out of town for safety after a Senate vote, and where Justices of the Wisconsin Supreme Court used assault and slander in attempts to progressivise the Supreme Court – it is here in Wisconsin, that Governor Scott Walker combined the necessary boldness, courage and justice to win the battle against Madison’s progressives Unintimidated (the title of the inside story). 

Wisconsin is where our unintimidated conservative governor was sustained by the support and gratitude of his people, where he balanced the budget and restored solvency, and where conservative values continue to return via legislative change.Slide1

Wisconsin is where Scott Walker went on to to win the progressive attempted recall by a landslide with more support than he got when first elected, and where Scott Walker went on to get re-elected yet one more time.

So It’s Also in Wisconsin Again…

So it’s also in Wisconsin where the Republican nomination will also be tested.  In this case, the choice will be between two candidates who share some of Scott Walker’s values.

Donald Trump certainly demonstrates the valuable quality of “unintimidation” needed to face today’s progressive agenda.
Sadly, his commitment to conservatism is newfound, and yet to be tested.
His flip-flop on important values has been highlighted just this week, with contrasting statements on abortion, which change with the media pressure that is placed on him.
Donald Trump would make an infinitely better President than any progressive opponent, like Hillary or Bernie.
But he pales by comparison with most other Republican competitors, particularly in the area of “social issues-” or, in my book, ethics – religious liberty, abortion, and marriage.
He also has me slightly nervous about the possibility of being a Trojan Horse.trump-cruz-kasich

Ted Cruz also demonstrates the unintimidation needed today.  He gets much better marks than The Donald on ethics – on religious liberty, abortion, and marriage.
If we are limited to the three Republican candidates today, he is unquestionably the best choice.

At the risk of almost omitting poor John Kasich from the discussion, Kasich has a significantly lower probability of success than Trump or Cruz.  He is too liberal for my taste, but I would vote for him any day above Hillary or Bernie. And God bless his heart, he helps both major candidates to remain short of the magic number of 1237 delegates.  This fact increases the probability of a brokered convention, for which I am rooting, and which would make it possible to return some very fine candidates into consideration– including Scott Walker, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, and many others.
(Stay tuned for another article coming very soon on the Brokered Convention and why that is a Godsend during this 2016 election, despite all the media hype that portray it as a looming catastrophe.)

But now back to the Wisconsin Primary of Tuesday, April 5, 2016, which is being veiwed by some as a pivotal “Battle of Wisconsin” in the Republican presidential nomination of 2016.

So What Are the Candidates’ Chances?

What are the candidates’ chances, nationally and in Wisconsin?

One indicator of the candidates’ chances is the (speculative) number of delegates each candidate has accumulated.

Despite attempts by Donald Trump’s campaign and by much media to imply that Donald Trump is entitled to being declared the Presumptive nominee of the Republican Party because he (speculatively) has accumulated 736 delegates in the primaries so far, Donal Trump is still far short of any such assumption.

winning by a noseThe Republican nomination is not a horse race, and the winning candidate does not win by a nose.  Republican nominations, as are most elections, including the general election, require the support of more than half of the Republican Party.   When races are close, or candidates are numerous, runoff elections occur, designed to home in on a candidate on whom 51% of America can agree.

Looking at the (speculative) distribution of delegates won so far by various candidates below, it becomes pretty obvious that Donald Trump has no guarantee whatsoever of receiving the support of half of Republicans in the United States, and a runoff election, otherwise known as a brokered convention, is highly likely to be required.

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Incidentally, the brokered convention is not an evil plot concocted by the Republican elites, as Donald Trump’s campaign and some media would have you believe.  The brokered convention is the natural result of numerous candidates, close races, or a split party – all of which are occurring in 2016 – and rules specifying brokered conventions have been around since Abraham Lincoln’s election.  Those rules are not stacked in favor of anybody, not “establishment” Republicans, not liberals, not conservatives, but are simply rules, like Robert’s Rules of Order (which govern the Rules of the Republican Party), which have been refined by experts and statisticians over decades to specify the fairest way to operate a runoff election.

NOTE: Looking at the pie chart above, you can see not only that neither Trump nor Cruz are the Presumptive nominee by any means, but also that Wisconsin’s contribution to the number of delegates up for grabs is not overriding, either.

So What’s the Fuss About Wisconsin?

So what’s the fuss about Wisconsin?Slide1

The fuss is two-fold:

  • Wisconsin has succeeded in reversing a progressive liberal trend and restoring Wisconsin safely and efficiently to a more rational conservative government.  It serves as a model for the changes needed in our Federal government today.
  • Wisconsin has also succeeded in rescuing it’s Supreme Court from radical takeover by progressives who were using Alinsky tactics.  This also serves as a model for the changes needed in our Federal Supreme Court today.

As goes Wisconsin, so might go the United States.
Or at least we hope so.
Our Lady of Good Help, help us!

The Wisconsin Vote

So What Will Happen in Wisconsin?
Republican presidential candidates are polling 40% Cruz, 33% Trump, and 19% Kasich.
One might add that conservatives are sometimes reluctant to participate in polls, pariticularly in the aggressive progressive Alinsky tactic climate we are presently in.  So polls often underestimate the magnitude of conservative support a conservative candidate might receive.  This happened to Governor Walker in the recall election of 2012, which Governor Walker won by a landslide.

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So it will be no surprise if Ted Cruz wins Wisconsin by a landslide.

Let’s hope this happens, and that it is indicative of national attitudes.

However, it is most probable that nobody, neither Trump nor Cruz, will get the (speculative) 1237 delegates nationally, and a runoff election will be needed.
Again, a welcome development, which might even return Scott Walker, Wisconsin’s governor (or anybody else) into the running if Trump or Cruz cannot get 51% of the delegates in the first vote at the convention.

Equally Important- the Wisconsin Supreme Court

Equally important is Wisconsin’s Supreme Court, where a regressive progressive, JoAnn Kloppenburg, is challenging the seat of constitutionalist Justice Rebecca Bradley, who can be relied upon to stick to the constitution instead of legislating progressivism from the bench.

To complicate the matter, the good Justice Rebecca Bradley of the Wisconsin Supreme Court has the same last name as the horrible regressive progressive Justice Ann Walsh Bradley of the Wisconsin Supreme Court who assaulted fellow Justice Prosser in 2011, then lied to the press reversing the tables to smear Justice Prosser. See photos of the two diametrically opposed Justice Bradleys below.

So Let’s Get it Clear!

Let’s Get it Clear-

 

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz speaks as The Milwaukee County Republican Party hosted a dinner at Serb Hall in Milwaukee on Friday, April 1, 2016. (Mike De Sisti/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel via AP) MANDATORY CREDIT NO SALES

Vote for Ted Cruz, who supports Religious Freedom, opposes Planned Parenthood and abortion, and supports traditional marriage.  He’s a patriot who supports the Constitution of the United States.

JusticeBradley-Logo
Vote for Justice Rebecca Bradley, who is committed to the rule of law and applying the law fairly and impartially.

 

 

 

Vote for Ted Cruz on April 5th in Wisconsin!

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Vote for Justice Rebecca Bradley on April 5th in Wisconsin!

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Yay, Ballotpedia!

For the BEST article EVER!!! :

2016 Presidential Candidates Slash More Than Just Budgets

April 1, 2016

Donald Trump
Photo via TrumpDonald

Citing Trump’s improved poll figures in the aftermath of his recent head-shaving episode, other presidential hopefuls are now cleaving their locks as well – all hoping to gain the advantage in this year’s heated race for the White House.

When Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrived with his head shaved to a campaign event in Janesville, Wis. on Tuesday, March 29th, pundits widely speculated on the bizarre incident. Was it a sign of a Britney-like meltdown, or a serious medical condition?……….   continued at  2016 Presidential Candidates Slash More Than Just Budgets .

 

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