Don’t Count Chickens When Deluged with Hatching Black Swans!
A Note To Republican Delegates
Black swans: This is a political science concept based on the fact that most swans are white, and black swans were thought not to exist at all. In actual fact, black swans do exist, but are very, very rare. The political phrase refers to Black Swan events as very rare events that are completely unexpected, yet they transform history as we know it and make history completely unpredictable.
Don’t Count Chickens!
So today, in the very unpredictable political climate that seems to change direction radically by the day during this 2016 Presidential election, we should not be concluding or forecasting anything at all until all the rare, unpredictable events have finished arriving. We should not count chickens when we are in the midst of a cygnet (baby swan) hatching explosion!
So what should we do? Nothing?
What should we do faced with one political shocker after another? Nothing?
No, we can soak in events, analyze them logically, and see if they fit into a pattern or frame of reference that we can make sense of.
You probably say- good luck doing that, analyzing or understanding anything in the present political climate!
By definition, black swan events cannot be anticipated, or prepared for.
Yes. Good luck doing the impossible!
That is, unless you remember to include the interconnection of Church and State, a politically incorrect and taboo topic which we have been exploring on this website in recent years. A concept that actually provides the key to understanding – and to steering or taming– the seemingly out-of-control events we are witnessing today.
Events shaping this presidential election political season have certainly surprised and stunned us all from the very start.
Who expected 17 Republican candidates? Who expected Donald Trump’s candidacy? Who expected socialist Bernie’s challenge of Hillary to amount to more than a hill of beans? Who expected Trump’s phenomenal success and his following? And who expected Cruz to drop out of the race as and when he did?
Here we might add the observation that Cruz’s exit speech on May 2nd at the conclusion of the Indiana Primary sounded more like a rallying speech, and opened the possibility, at least in my mind, that the “suspension” of Cruz’s campaign was not so much the waving of a white flag as a shift to a different, clandestine game plan. There is, after all, more than one clandestine war going on behind the scenes, not controlled by and not on the radar of those of us who devote only 15 minutes every 4 years to entering a voting booth. (More on the clandestine wars later.)
Black Swan Political Theory
The collection of unexpected, unprecedented events we have witnessed in the primary season so far this year indicate an outcome that could never have previously been imagined, and is presently hard to imagine. It is a classic example of a Black Swan political event.
And not only are we witnessing a Black Swan event in this election, but we have scores of Black Swan events occurring one after another. They are stunning political professionals and pundits, and violating all laws of political probability!
What Can We Learn from Black Swan Theory Today?
So let us sit back and make some stabs at analyzing what is going on, what the future might hold, and whether we are powerless pawns in the unfolding of history, or whether we have at our disposal some secret weapons that could steer events. (Via one of my favorite topics, the Interconnection between Church and State!)
When things seem dismal and all seems lost (incidentally, this is precisely the moment in time that most of us fall to our knees in prayer), some pretty remarkable things begin to happen. We begin to include faith and God in our politics, and the Goliaths begin to fall. It’s described in the Bible (David and Goliath), and it’s happened in recent history – including the recent collapse of the Soviet Union. When people start praying and putting ethics first, that’s when we get to see the successful and productive Interconnection of Church and State.
Religion is powerful, and the Interconnection of Church and State is powerful. There is a reason why despots, and why many in our present government and culture (also despots!), try so hard to eliminate God from public life. With God included, despots have no chance, and the people win.
So Where Are We Right Now?
Trump versus Hillary?
If you believe much of the media, it’s going to be Trump versus Hillary, isn’t it?
Not quite so simple.
It very well may be Trump versus Hillary, but there are many reasons why it might not be.
The Secret War Most of Us Missed in 2012
In 2012, it really looked like it would be Mitt Romney versus Obama. But those who followed this closely could see there was a clandestine war for delegates going on and Mitt Romney only made it by the skin of his (very polished) teeth.
Mitt Romney and Ron Paul had BOTH satisfied the conditions for entering the convention (plurality in 5 States) in 2012, and since delegates were only thought to be bound on the first vote, Ron Paul supporters were working on getting delegates to exercise their freedom of conscience. Delegates could prevent Romney’s nomination in the first vote of the Tampa 2012 Convention by abstaining, and thus they could trigger a brokered convention. This would give Ron Paul a chance to compete for the nomination, and would allow the introduction of additional candidates.
Yes, in 2012, we were headed for a brokered convention – but it turns out that Mitt Romney had had enough clandestine foresight to seed the Republican Rules Committee with delegates who were loyal to himself ahead of the convention — delegates who then changed Rule 40(b) on the eve of the Convention in such a way as to exclude Ron Paul, and to allow only Mitt Romney into the Convention. A brokered convention was avoided, and Mitt Romney got the nomination.
But Ron Paul came very close to winning a clandestine war against Mitt Romney, something that most Americans did not know then, and do not know to this day.
And we might add that this was not a gentleman’s war, but a dirty battle, during which Over 400 Republican delegates filed a Federal lawsuit against the Republican National Committee and Reince Priebus the Chairman, alleging that violence and intimidation were used against delegates in an effort to control how they voted. These delegates refused to be bound and insisted on their right to vote their conscience in 2012. Today, it has been clarified that delegates do indeed, have the right to vote their conscience in all votes at the Convention. As it turns out, binding is not binding!
Note also, that it’s the progressives in the Republican Party (yes, there are some!) who are being accused of violence and intimidation– NOT the conservatives!
Are We in the Midst of More Clandestine Battles?
So, where are we today?
Today, we are on the brink of another brokered convention.
The same cultural war is raging, we have the same division in the nation and in both parties, and the same clandestine political struggles are occurring behind the scenes.
Not to mention criminal investigations that may impact the presidential race.
This time, the struggles have intensified, the media has publicized them, and more Americans know about the situation.
So make no mistake, there are plenty of clandestine battles going on, and there is no guarantee yet that it’s Trump versus Hillary.
Because our primary focus here is on the Republican nomination, we raise only briefly the possibility that Hillary Clinton may be charged with criminal charges and may soon be disqualified from candidacy for President. Charges against Hillary Clinton include tampering with and destruction of documents, and espionage. The results of FBI email investigations and Bengazi investigation results (five House committees, two Senate committees and a bipartisan Select Committee on Benghazi) could lead to FBI indictment and serious federal charges against Hillary Clinton. Needless to say, such charges would remove Hillary from any race for Presidency. Unless, of course, Obama has the gall to issue a pardon.
In the event that Hillary is disqualified from the race on legal grounds, more black swans will arrive- are we to consider a socialist, possibly communist Presidential candidate in the United States? Will there be attempts to introduce Joe Biden? Someone else?
Threats to Donald
Back to Republicans – Donald Trump has just won 1237 estimated delegates, due to Cruz’s suspension of his campaign. But that number is just that- ESTIMATED.
Nobody can know the true number until the first vote occurs at the Republican Convention in Cleveland in July.
For a while it seemed like NO candidate would clear the Rule 40(b) bar that Mitt Romney changed in 2012, which now requires a candidate to clear a majority (51%) in 8 States to enter the convention – a very difficult thing to do, and something that Donald Trump was in doubt of accomplishing before Ted Cruz’s unexpected suspension of his campaign.
Plans were even under way in the Republican Party to change Rule 40(b) on the eve of the Convention, so that Republicans would not have ZERO candidates meeting the requirements to enter the Convention. The proposed change would have admitted all candidates who “won” at least one delegate in the primaries (that would be about half of the original 17 candidates) to enter the convention for the first vote.
So now, with Cruz’s suspension it’s looking like Trump has cleared Rule 40(b), and the 1237 estimate, and will be the only candidate estimated to qualify for nomination.
However, Trump’s victories so far have been in the primary arena, an arena that is primarily money-driven, and not driven by the ideology of Republican voters. It is an arena which is tainted by the Democrat-driven legislation which allows non-Republicans to vote in Republican primaries in 24 States. It is NOT an arena that represents Republican voters, Republican ideology, or the Republican Platform.
It is not an accident that the Rules of the Republican Party provide delegates at the Convention a veto power over the Primaries. Delegates are active Republicans in 50 States and territories, are not from Washington, and they represent American citizens who are Republican better than the primaries now do. The delegates just may not reproduce the results of the Primaries.
What happens if the delegates actually represent the affiliation of American Republicans, who seem to lean conservative by 2/3, instead of representing the Primaries, in which Donald Trump collected his victories after bankrupting his 16 more conservative opponents?
Complicating the Already Complicated Mess
To make matters even less certain than usual, it has become clear this year that delegates are not bound by primary results, and can “change” their votes. They are even free to vote their conscience in the first vote of the convention, and do not have to feel “bound” by the primary/caucus results. This information has just surfaced in this primary election season. So Donald Trump is in serious danger of not getting his estimated 1237 votes in the first ballot of the convention, despite feeling that he has 1237 estimated votes based on Primary results!
In spite of Democrat and media efforts to portray this as a massive violation of democracy, it has become clear that delegates who ignore primary results would actually be restoring democracy, and would actually be protecting the right of the Republican Party to nominate it’s own conservative candidate– rather than handing that privilege to their opponent, the Democrat Party, who has surreptitiously succeeded in passing “binding” legislation in 24 States in recent decades.
These recent Democrat efforts to steer the Republican nomination have been trumped (no, not by Trump) by the Rules of the National Republican Party, a careful reading of which makes it clear that the rights of Republicans to nominate their own Republican candidate have been preserved, despite Democrat attempts to hijack their process.
Rogue Delegates or Patriots?
So this year, Republican delegates have finally been made aware of the fact that they hold the legitimate and legal power to restore the conservative face of the Republican Party to match it’s conservative platform. They do not have to bend to legislation passed by Democrats in 24 States, who were trying to subvert the functioning of their opponent Republican party.
The Rules of the Republican Party have specifically exempted their delegates from such interference by State legislation.
So guess what?
Thousands of Republican delegates will be deciding this July where to place their allegiance- to the Republican Party Platform, or to primary results (which were massively tainted by the participation of non-Republican progressives, even by progressives bussed in from neighboring States– in the 2016 New Hampshire primary— to hijack the Republican nomination).
Worth repeating: For the first time, delegates are highly likely to go rogue, on a massive scale. And they’re not Republican “establishment” cronies. They’re more likely very conservative patriots.
More Layers of Chaos
Needless to say, if the delegates Donald Trump thinks he has won (because of legislation in 24 States that “binds” delegate votes), if those 1237 delegates instead follow their own conscience, because they just learned that they are exempt from this legislation which was pushed through by Democrats in 24 States, more chaos will result.
The delegates might either abstain, depriving Donald Trump of 51% and forcing a second vote, in which additional candidates can be proposed, or delegates might vote for someone other than Trump (depending on who is on the ballot, which depends on what rules have been changed by Rules Committee the week before!!!).
As you can plainly see, massive numbers of Black Swans may be arriving to stun us, and there is little way of predicting which way it will go.
Particularly for us normal people who don’t have any of the pertinent clandestine details, and who are limited by the very limited and biased information offered to us by the press.
The players battling for control in this underground war which may or may not succeed in ousting Donald are not necessarily RINO “establishment” delegates who want Mitt Romney to be President (although there will be some of those, too).
This is a multi-faceted war with an outcome impossible to steer, except by prayer and adherence to Judeo-Christian ethical principles. (That’s the only way we can tame or steer Black Swans.)
The players will include:
- Trump & his associates
- Conservative Republicans who have been felt betrayed by the actions of increasingly progressive Republican leaders since the 2014 elections
- RINO “establishment” members who want to maintain the status quo, even if it means handing the election to Hillary. Incidentally, Donald Tump’s lumping of all Donald opposition under a common umbrella of “establishment” is vey misleading. In actual fact, Donald is lumping two warring factions together – conservatives and RINOS – who are war with each other, and who each have very different reasons for opposing Donald Trump.
- Evangelical and Catholic citizens who are fighting to maintain Judeo-Christian values (religious liberty, pro-life and traditional marriage) in the Republican Platform
- Ted Cruz, who could be continuing an unpublicized yet legitimate behind the scenes effort to win delegates ideologically, as he did in Colorado and in North Dakota.
- The “Never Trump” group, which may overlap with some of the other groups mentioned.
- Tea Party Members who emphasize conservative economy over conservative ethical “social” values
- Libertarians, who often line up with Republicans in areas where their interests overlap. This year, some are even discussing Libertarian success as a third party, feeling they have a better than usual chance because so many voters want simply “not Hillary” and “not Trump” this year.
- Progressive infiltrators of the Republican Party who have been trying to steer left for quite some time.
- Mitt Romney, who has been rumored to be thinking of an Independent candidacy. Mitt Romney? No longer a Republican? Now an Independent?
- Will there be two Independent candidates? A Libertarian and Mitt Romney?
- Or even a third Independent candidate? Bernie Sanders, who has been encouraged by Donald Trump to run as an Independent.
- … there may be other factions that have not occurred to me, naive and out of the loop in politics as I am.
And, most important, there is a invisible player, God. And God has a wicked sense of humor.I am watching political developments with great anticipation, as America continues to pray.
- Media- press, social, advertising
- Wooing delegates behind the scenes- both honest ideological wooing and potential dishonest manipulation and bribery.
- Alteration of the Rules of the Republican Party by the Rules Committee at the eve of the Convention.
- Alteration of the Platform of the Republican Party in the Platform Committee at the eve of the Convention
- … numerous other mechanisms that this politically naive citizen struggles to imagine
- And, most important, the hearts, souls, prayers and churches of America, where good people continue to pray for a restoration of Judeo-Christian morality to American government.
The Outcome WILL Be a Black Swan
The outcome of this Presidential election season is likely to be a Black Swan not possible to predict at this point in time. We should not place too much confidence in the outcome being Donald or Hillary.
A Good Outcome Is Quite Possible
We should remember that Black Swans, although unpredictable, can be good – like the collapse of the Soviet Union without war in 1991.
We could, if we play our cards right (actually, if we talk to God right), end up with a restoration of Judeo-Christian values and an Abraham Lincoln or Ronald Reagan emerging as our next President. That person could even be Donald Trump, provided his “conversion” to conservatism is legit. And the conversion would have to be in all areas, particularly the ethical ones.
Violence May Be Involved
The outcome of this Presidential election season could include violence at conventions – both Republican and Democrat.
Donald Trump has forecast, even before he became the lone candidate following Ted Cruz’s withdrawal, and before Trump had the Mitt Romney-2012 rule-required majority in 8 States (which only a lone candidate could possibly acquire), Trump (very unprofessionally and very undemocratically) has forecast riots if he is not elected the Republican nominee on the first Convention vote. Is Donald Trump considering encouraging the use of Alinsky tactics, previously employed primarily by progressives?
There are reports of violence instigated by paid professional protesters at some recent Trump campaign events- protesters sent by Clinton and Soros. Several protesters admitted answering a Craig’s list ad paying $16.00 an hour for protesters.
There are even reports of Democrat on Democrat violence – between Bernie and Hillary supporters. At the Nevada Democrat State Convention, Senator Boxer claimed that Bernie supporters made her fear for her life.
Even conservatives, albeit far right conservatives, have now made the mistake of hinting at the use of violence. Glen Beck was just suspended from his show for comments hinting at the assassination of a President Trump in the event that he is elected and becomes dictatorial, following the Presidential present precedent.
People most often turn to violence when they feel cornered.
The left has been fighting an uphill battle against Judeo-Christian morality and has been using violent and crooked Alinsky tactics now for years.
But now more and more “Independents” are turning to violence as a solution to our increasing problems.
This may explain the wide support now seen for Donald Trump’s aggressive rhetoric- people seem to think that it takes a bully (Trump) to subdue a bully (Obama).
But that attitude is very short-sighted, and I am personally hoping that Trump’s rhetoric is theatrical, not literal.
It is hard to say whether Donald Trump is a patriot or just another bully.
Introducing bully #2 into the White House could be very dangerous, and could boomerang in our faces, as do most violations of Judeo-Christian ethics.
We really do need to figure out exactly what page Mr. Trump is on. Is he a legitimate convert to conservatism and the solution to America’s problems, is he a naive liberal who thinks he can win the Presidency by adopting a couple of conservative positions and hijacking the Republican Party, or is he actually a liberal plant, an infiltrator, who is about to blow the Republican Party apart?
This blogger truly has NO idea. (Hence the increased need for prayer and for more GOOD Black Swans.)
Violence Not Too Surprising From Alinskyite Progressives- But Will Trump Encourage Joining In?
The practice of Alinsky tactics by Democrats is not too surprising, considering Obama and Hillary were students (and teachers!) of Alinsky tactics. These aggressive tactics were well illustrated during the circus staged by Democrat union protesters in Madison Wisconsin, to fight Governor Scott Walker’s financial reforms in 2011. I witnessed and experienced those “non-violent” tactics myself, at the hands of Madison, Wisconsin progressives.
But the possibility of violence and Alinsky tactics among Republicans is truly disturbing. So far, it’s only talk, and actual disruptions have been limited to progressive and paid “activists.”
A positive outcome of this Presidential election, with a victory for Judeo-Christian values, is still possible. But such an outcome will definitely require courageous action and fervent prayer on the part of conservatives.
The outcome will not be favorable if we do not engage in the battle and stick to our guns.
Goliath would never have been slain if David had not stepped up to the challenge.
The Soviet Union would never have collapsed if Ronald Reagan, Polish Solidarity and Pope John Paul II had run away from the problem or cowered.
We will be facing some Alinksyites and some primitive mobs.
But with God in our corner, we will not be facing them alone.
2016 – a Pivotal Election
This election represents a very major battle with the potential to reclaim the soul and the morality of America.
It may be the pivotal battle that determines whether America is Great again, or whether America falls into decline and ethical collapse. A nation that kills it’s children at the rate of 1 million per year cannot thrive- either morally, or economically.
And making America Great Again is not a reference to Trump- on whom the jury is still out.
America will not be made great solely through economic strategy.
America will be made great by returning to the Judeo-Christian values on which America was established.
Whether America returns to those founding values, and whether that return is headed by a converted St. Donald (analogy to St. Paul the Evangelist) or by a different ethical conservative leader, remains to be seen.
In 1571, Christian Europe was under threat of Muslim domination, and prayer of the Rosary to Our Lord, through the intercession of his Mother of Good Counsel, led to a very surprising (Black Swan) victory for Christian forces against terrific odds.
Christian Europe was saved from annihilation.
The inscription on the image of Our Lady of Good Counsel reads “Mater Bonii Consilii, Ora Pro Nobis Jesum Fillium Tuum,” or “Mother of Good Counsel, Pray for Us to Jesus your Son.”
You don’t have to be Catholic to pray the Rosary, a meditative prayer on the Life of Our Lord.
Praying the Rosary today is as pertinent and as effective as it was in 1571.
One Way to Win
One possible mechanism for a positive outcome could include delegates using their freedom to pressure Donald Trump into supporting the present Republican Platform.
Donald Trump is just beginning to back up his claim of conversion to conservatism with action- with the announcement of his Supreme Court picks.
Let’s hope he continues by supporting other important ethical issues, like pro-life, religious freedom and traditional marriage.
Can We Dispense With the Moral Issues?
Some think that we can dispense with the “social” or “moral” issues and focus on the economic.
Rush Limbaugh has actually suggested that the Republican platform is optional or dispensable. This implies that the mission statement describing what the Republican Party represents and has represented for decades, and which assures voters of exactly what they are voting for, need not be followed. It’s dispensable, said Rush Limbaugh. Nobody follows the platform any more. Really? How did Mitt Romney fare in the 2012 election when he failed to follow the platform? How did that work out for Mitt and for the entire Republican Party? Has Rush Limbaugh now abandoned conservative values?
When a conservative icon like Rush Limbaugh begins to waffle on conservative principles we can be sure that events have become truly baffling. They are only baffling, however, when someone gets scared by all the black swans that have been arriving. Rush needs a reminder on the role of Black Swans in history and their steerability via some serious prayer and some serious adherence to Judeo-Christian ethical principles, no matter what!
Some suggest that a middle of the road outcome, in which Donald Trump, with the appointment of a relatively liberal Vice President, possibly even a Democrat, would “solve” the political tug-of-war that has existed for decades now between the right and the left.
This national ideological split, characterized by tug-of-war elections which are won by the slimmest of margins, has produced almost random election outcomes in recent years.
The formation of a “hybrid” merger, a middle-of-the-road party through a mechanism involving Donald Trump could serve the purpose of eliminating the established political system and the current players who have much invested in continuation of the system. The resulting elimination of lobbyists, entrenched politicians and self-interested parties, often using political correctness to force their agendas, would be replaced by a more rational system, more accountable to the electorate.
Although this possibility is theoretically attractive and is aimed at producing policies that benefit all Americans, it does not address the resolution of some major problems, for which compromise does not seem possible.
A wagon pulled in two directions simultaneously by two different horses gets nowhere.
There are many areas in which it is not possible to compromise, in which one side must win:
- It is not possible to take both roads when you reach a fork.
- We cannot aim for individual freedom and for governmental control of personal life and personal thought at the same time.
- We cannot outlaw and allow abortion simultaneously.
- We cannot both allow and forbid guns.
- We cannot preserve traditional marriage and allow homosexual marriage at the same time.
- We cannot respect religious freedom and require all doctors to perform abortions concurrently.
- We cannot enforce immigration law and simultaneously have open borders.
- We cannot build up military defense and reduce military defense at the same time.
- We cannot base our Constitution and Bill of Rights on God-given rights, yet forbid the public mention of God and of religion.
- We cannot respect Judeo-Christian values and delete Judeo-Christian values from our laws concurrently.
- We cannot have a Supreme Court which decrees national law and policy without regard to the beliefs of the American population- most of the above mentioned issues have involved decrees by Supreme Court and by Executive Action which are in disagreement with the beliefs of most Americans.
- We cannot have a Democratic Republic in which elected Representatives of the people do not represent the wishes of the people and in which politically appointed Supreme Court Justices overrule the will and the religious beliefs of the people.
Choices Must and Will be Made
Choices must be made, and laws must be enforced.
This election is likely to determine whether the United States steers right or steers left.
We’ve been waffling too long and getting nowhere.
Actually, no. We have been very rapidly drifting left- not by the will of the people, but by manipulation by the Presidency and by the Supreme Court. And Congress is NOT doing their job of checking those out-of-control branches of government.
There is no way to predict or to influence the outcome of this very complex situation except through sticking to our ethics, praying, and watching the Black Swans as they arrive.
Personally, I think it’s high time somebody corrected the damage done by the Obama administration, which is ramping up affronts to morality and to religious freedom by the day.
There is a major spiritual battle going on, and we need to engage in it.
Citizens must support the most ethically conservative candidates and must vote.
Delegates must follow their consciences and make sure that the candidate elected, whether it is Donald Trump or not, sticks to the Judeo-Christian ethics outlined in the present Republican Platform.
May God Bless and Help America!
-which explains why the brokered convention has been totally misrepresented by media and by campaigns, and why the brokered convention could be the Black Swan that saves America, as it has done in the past- with the election of Abraham Lincoln and of Ronald Reagan.
-an explanation of why delegates having the power to reverse primary results may not be a ditching of democracy at all, but the reverse- a protection, or check and balance built into the system against infiltration of primaries by the opposition or by monied interests. Also why “rogue” delegates may not represent the Republican “establishment” at all, but may represent the reclaiming of the soul of the Republican Party.
– which reflects the conservative leanings of most of America.
Aside: Wisconsin Primary results reflect the conservative will of America, which could dominate the Presidential election if Conventions are allowed to play their intended role of checking the money-driven Primary results, in which 16 (mostly conservative) Republican candidates were out-maneuvered financially by Donald Trump, but still represent the will of two thirds of America.
-which describes why Wisconsin is a great model for the whole United States, our war between right and left, and why Wisconsin offers successful solutions for all of America.
-which discusses the conflict between Primaries and Convention, between State legislation and RNC Rules, and the recent legal developments that give Republican delegates complete freedom to “trump” Primary results – and why they might not be traitors, but patriots if they do so.
-which discusses the politically awkward questions that are being evaded, yet which are steering this Republican primary season.
– which outlines the dillemma faced by Republican delegates on “binding,” Mitt Romney’s Rule changes, and the question of whether RNC rules trump State legislation passed by Democrats.