Syte Reitz

The hand that rocks the cradle rules the world…….

Browsing Posts tagged Wisconsin Primary

The Battle of Wisconsin

(Added 4-6-16: See Battle of Wisconsin Election Results)

What’s So Special About Wisconsin?

Wisconsin-PNGAs the presidential election season progresses and candidates proceed from state to state vying for support, there is much talk about the “Battle of Wisconsin,” portraying the primaries occurring here this Tuesday as being particularly crucial in determining the Republican nominee for the presidential election of 2016.

On the one hand, every primary/caucus in every state since Iowa gets built up by the press to heighten the excitement of the race and to boost network ratings.

On the other hand, Wisconsin does feature some characteristics that may be reflective of the evolving mind of the American people at large, and thus might give us a glimpse into what is to come.

Why is Wisconsin a Good Model for the National Struggle Between Right and Left?

A power shift from Democrats to Republicans has recently been witnessed in Wisconsin, and has made Wisconsin a sort of national battleground for the progressive agenda on more than one occasion.  This included the near-rioting union takeover of Wisconsin’s Capitol building in Madison in 2011, the Wisconsin Supreme Court Scandals on the eve of an important union ruling, and the present election to be held on Tuesday, April 5th, 2016, which represents not only the battle between Republican presidential hopefuls, but also the battle for progressive control, by hook or by crook, of the Wisconsin Supreme Court.Slide1

In each of these battles, progressive Alinsky tactics have been used by radical Democrats, testing frantically whether a minority can dominate in a democracy, by sheer bullying (Alinsky tactics). Incidentally, in Wisconsin, conservative values have won so far, despite the Alinsky tactics, and despite the progressivism of Wisconsin’s Capitol city, Madison.

Aside

It could easily be argued that Donald Trump’s rapid rise to popularity is a consequence of progressive bullying and Alinsky tactics of Democrats. Trump’s bold outspokenness and willingness to fight fire with fire, his unintimidated attitude, is garnering widespread support across the nation.

So It’s In Wisconsin…

And so it is here in Wisconsin, where close-to-rabid progressive crowds chased a Republican senator around the Capitol building, where a progressive Mayor called off  police from enforcing law and order during union demonstrations, where police were nowhere to be foundSlide2 and fire-fighters had to rescue a cornered senator, where conservative legislators had to be escorted out of town for safety after a Senate vote, and where Justices of the Wisconsin Supreme Court used assault and slander in attempts to progressivise the Supreme Court – it is here in Wisconsin, that Governor Scott Walker combined the necessary boldness, courage and justice to win the battle against Madison’s progressives Unintimidated (the title of the inside story). 

Wisconsin is where our unintimidated conservative governor was sustained by the support and gratitude of his people, where he balanced the budget and restored solvency, and where conservative values continue to return via legislative change.Slide1

Wisconsin is where Scott Walker went on to to win the progressive attempted recall by a landslide with more support than he got when first elected, and where Scott Walker went on to get re-elected yet one more time.

So It’s Also in Wisconsin Again…

So it’s also in Wisconsin where the Republican nomination will also be tested.  In this case, the choice will be between two candidates who share some of Scott Walker’s values.

Donald Trump certainly demonstrates the valuable quality of “unintimidation” needed to face today’s progressive agenda.
Sadly, his commitment to conservatism is newfound, and yet to be tested.
His flip-flop on important values has been highlighted just this week, with contrasting statements on abortion, which change with the media pressure that is placed on him.
Donald Trump would make an infinitely better President than any progressive opponent, like Hillary or Bernie.
But he pales by comparison with most other Republican competitors, particularly in the area of “social issues-” or, in my book, ethics – religious liberty, abortion, and marriage.
He also has me slightly nervous about the possibility of being a Trojan Horse.trump-cruz-kasich

Ted Cruz also demonstrates the unintimidation needed today.  He gets much better marks than The Donald on ethics – on religious liberty, abortion, and marriage.
If we are limited to the three Republican candidates today, he is unquestionably the best choice.

At the risk of almost omitting poor John Kasich from the discussion, Kasich has a significantly lower probability of success than Trump or Cruz.  He is too liberal for my taste, but I would vote for him any day above Hillary or Bernie. And God bless his heart, he helps both major candidates to remain short of the magic number of 1237 delegates.  This fact increases the probability of a brokered convention, for which I am rooting, and which would make it possible to return some very fine candidates into consideration– including Scott Walker, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, and many others.
(Stay tuned for another article coming very soon on the Brokered Convention and why that is a Godsend during this 2016 election, despite all the media hype that portray it as a looming catastrophe.)

But now back to the Wisconsin Primary of Tuesday, April 5, 2016, which is being veiwed by some as a pivotal “Battle of Wisconsin” in the Republican presidential nomination of 2016.

So What Are the Candidates’ Chances?

What are the candidates’ chances, nationally and in Wisconsin?

One indicator of the candidates’ chances is the (speculative) number of delegates each candidate has accumulated.

Despite attempts by Donald Trump’s campaign and by much media to imply that Donald Trump is entitled to being declared the Presumptive nominee of the Republican Party because he (speculatively) has accumulated 736 delegates in the primaries so far, Donal Trump is still far short of any such assumption.

winning by a noseThe Republican nomination is not a horse race, and the winning candidate does not win by a nose.  Republican nominations, as are most elections, including the general election, require the support of more than half of the Republican Party.   When races are close, or candidates are numerous, runoff elections occur, designed to home in on a candidate on whom 51% of America can agree.

Looking at the (speculative) distribution of delegates won so far by various candidates below, it becomes pretty obvious that Donald Trump has no guarantee whatsoever of receiving the support of half of Republicans in the United States, and a runoff election, otherwise known as a brokered convention, is highly likely to be required.

Slide2

Incidentally, the brokered convention is not an evil plot concocted by the Republican elites, as Donald Trump’s campaign and some media would have you believe.  The brokered convention is the natural result of numerous candidates, close races, or a split party – all of which are occurring in 2016 – and rules specifying brokered conventions have been around since Abraham Lincoln’s election.  Those rules are not stacked in favor of anybody, not “establishment” Republicans, not liberals, not conservatives, but are simply rules, like Robert’s Rules of Order (which govern the Rules of the Republican Party), which have been refined by experts and statisticians over decades to specify the fairest way to operate a runoff election.

NOTE: Looking at the pie chart above, you can see not only that neither Trump nor Cruz are the Presumptive nominee by any means, but also that Wisconsin’s contribution to the number of delegates up for grabs is not overriding, either.

So What’s the Fuss About Wisconsin?

So what’s the fuss about Wisconsin?Slide1

The fuss is two-fold:

  • Wisconsin has succeeded in reversing a progressive liberal trend and restoring Wisconsin safely and efficiently to a more rational conservative government.  It serves as a model for the changes needed in our Federal government today.
  • Wisconsin has also succeeded in rescuing it’s Supreme Court from radical takeover by progressives who were using Alinsky tactics.  This also serves as a model for the changes needed in our Federal Supreme Court today.

As goes Wisconsin, so might go the United States.
Or at least we hope so.
Our Lady of Good Help, help us!

The Wisconsin Vote

So What Will Happen in Wisconsin?
Republican presidential candidates are polling 40% Cruz, 33% Trump, and 19% Kasich.
One might add that conservatives are sometimes reluctant to participate in polls, pariticularly in the aggressive progressive Alinsky tactic climate we are presently in.  So polls often underestimate the magnitude of conservative support a conservative candidate might receive.  This happened to Governor Walker in the recall election of 2012, which Governor Walker won by a landslide.

Slide1
So it will be no surprise if Ted Cruz wins Wisconsin by a landslide.

Let’s hope this happens, and that it is indicative of national attitudes.

However, it is most probable that nobody, neither Trump nor Cruz, will get the (speculative) 1237 delegates nationally, and a runoff election will be needed.
Again, a welcome development, which might even return Scott Walker, Wisconsin’s governor (or anybody else) into the running if Trump or Cruz cannot get 51% of the delegates in the first vote at the convention.

Equally Important- the Wisconsin Supreme Court

Equally important is Wisconsin’s Supreme Court, where a regressive progressive, JoAnn Kloppenburg, is challenging the seat of constitutionalist Justice Rebecca Bradley, who can be relied upon to stick to the constitution instead of legislating progressivism from the bench.

To complicate the matter, the good Justice Rebecca Bradley of the Wisconsin Supreme Court has the same last name as the horrible regressive progressive Justice Ann Walsh Bradley of the Wisconsin Supreme Court who assaulted fellow Justice Prosser in 2011, then lied to the press reversing the tables to smear Justice Prosser. See photos of the two diametrically opposed Justice Bradleys below.

So Let’s Get it Clear!

Let’s Get it Clear-

 

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz speaks as The Milwaukee County Republican Party hosted a dinner at Serb Hall in Milwaukee on Friday, April 1, 2016. (Mike De Sisti/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel via AP) MANDATORY CREDIT NO SALES

Vote for Ted Cruz, who supports Religious Freedom, opposes Planned Parenthood and abortion, and supports traditional marriage.  He’s a patriot who supports the Constitution of the United States.

JusticeBradley-Logo
Vote for Justice Rebecca Bradley, who is committed to the rule of law and applying the law fairly and impartially.

 

 

 

Vote for Ted Cruz on April 5th in Wisconsin!

.
Vote for Justice Rebecca Bradley on April 5th in Wisconsin!

Slide1

 

 

 

Calling the shots

>

Fortune cookie:


This is your day to call the shots, so you should.

O.K., if I had an ounce of self-restraint left before the Wisconsin primary coming up this Tuesday, this fortune cookie just eliminated it.
I’m going to call the shots.
What shots would I like to call today?
The 2012 Presidential election, of course.
Something I have little control over, so the results are bound to be amusing.

Calling the Shots

If you call the shots, you are in charge and you tell people what to do.
But calling the shots can also mean using a psychological trick: you “call the shot” in advance, forecasting a result, hoping to influence people’s choices, so that you encourage your favored result.

Calling the Shots in Advance

And that seems to be what the Republican Party is doing right now- calling the shots in advance.
The Republican establishment probably never planned that Mitt Romney would get serious competition from any of his running mates, and now that he’s getting some serious competition from Rick Santorum, they are scrambling to discourage that.  They are bringing out the big guns, party leaders who are endorsing Mitt Romney prematurely, when Mitt has only 565 of the necessary 1144 delegates to win the primary.

Republicans have not bargained on an awakening of the American people, a scenario in which politicians on BOTH sides of the aisle would have to become more responsive to their electorates (and responsive to Tea Party supporters) than they previously had been.  It’s a lot easier to sit in comfy chairs making small polite concessions to opponents followed by socializing after work, than to implement the big changes and make the big cuts that many Americans want in 2012, and which will cut some of the frills in Washington, too.

So many Republicans are rallying behind Mitt Romney prematurely, hoping to discourage Rick Santorum, and hoping that Rick Santorum will concede and quit.  This would avoid a long, drawn-out primary, followed by a “brokered” or “contested” convention, during which the Republican establishment will have less control over the results, and the American people will have more control over the results.

Election 2008

Calling the shots in advance did not work so well 4 years ago, when everybody was forecasting that Hillary Clinton would be the nominee. Obama was a nobody.  Yet we have President Nobody issuing mandates today, and the Supreme Court struggling to read the 2700 pages of his NobodyCares for ObamaCare. Calling the Shots in advance backfired on the Democrats in 2008.

Election 1920

President Harding

Then there was President Harding in 1920, who was a nobody with only 20% of the candidates compared with his opponent (General Leonard Wood) in the primary.  If anybody were calling the shots in advance back then, he would have lost the primary.  But what happened?  Nobody won the initial race,  and they went to a contested or brokered convention, where Harding got 70% of the votes and became President.

Election 2012

Now, for the first time since 1920, we could be heading for a contested or brokered convention again. Although Mitt Romney unquestionably has the most delegates at this time, it is not clear whether Romney will be able to reach the 1144 required to win.

1144 out of 2286 total delegates are needed to win; Romney has 565; Santorum has 256; Gingrich has 141; Paul has 66, and thus 1258 delegates are still up for grabs.  In other words, any candidate, including one starting with zero delegates today, could still be the winner.

Top Republicans are panicking and calling for an end to the primary battle, uniting behind Romney.

Newt Gingrich has slowed down his campaign, planning to sit out the fight between Romney and Santorum, then join back in for the contested convention.

Rick Santorum vows to stay in the race, even if he does not win Wisconsin this Tuesday.

My Call

Everybody wants to forecast events before they occur.  I will join them.

Gallup Polls

  • Santorum is rapidly gaining on Romney:   Gallup Polls indicate that Romney and Santorum are competing closely, and are alternating in the lead during the last two months.
  • Santorum plans to stay in the election.  So, there could well be a brokered convention.
  • Santorum is a true conservative. Tea party likes him.  Evangelicals like him.
  • Gallup also says that most Americans are conservative:  40% conservative, 35% moderate, and only 21% liberal.   Conservatives Remain the Largest Ideological Group in U.S.
  • Romney is a question mark.  Romney has a shifting record that does not guarantee his sticking to promises any better than Obama has done. He takes direction well and changes direction well.  He would be better than Obama, but not better than Santorum.

Put it all together, and I say:

  • There will be a brokered convention.  Romney will not get 1144 delegates.  Santorum will not quit the primary.
  • At the brokered convention, people will choose what they want: a conservative, Rick Santorum.
  • The Republican establishment will have to make a correction to accommodate the Tea Party: less frills for everyone in Washington.
  • We will all celebrate the fact that our system of government did in fact protect the people of the United States as the Founding Fathers designed it to do.

Vote for Rick Santorum for President!

>

And if I’m Wrong?

If I am wrong, Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee.

If he beats Obama, since trying to prove why he is different from Obama on central issues like ObamaCare and Abortion will not be easy, he will do one of two things:

Fulfill all the promises he made during the election, unlike his predecessor Obama.

or

Change his mind and continue Obama’s policies, or something akin to them.

>

Santorum Equals Sanity

or

The Cap Times Published My Letter

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

The Cap Times Published My Letter

The Cap Times Published My Letter, which reads:

Santorum Family

Santorum Equals Sanity

Dear Editor: President Obama is out of control.

He is plagued by spending illness, and now it seems by delusions of grandeur, palling around with Russians in defiance of his electorate.

Mitt Romney is a giant question mark. “A political and cultural enigma,” according to Neil .Swidey.

Rick Santorum represents all the values most Americans have grown up with and admire: responsibility, thriftiness, honesty, truthfulness, faithfulness, and he’s a devoted .family man.

No wonder America is flocking to Santorum against all campaign spending predictions. If . Santorum wins, it will be proof that the Founding Fathers constructed a system that does . allow the people to control their own destiny.

Syte Reitz
Madison

.

Why did the Cap Times Publish a Conservative Letter?

When a liberal newspaper like the Cap Times, which is called the Progressive Voice of Madison, WI publishes a conservative letter endorsing Rick Santorum,  something is up.
  • They could be filling a quota of “conservative” items to prove how “balanced” their reporting is.
  • They could be setting up the conservative author for ridicule (a favorite pastime for Madison’s radical liberals).
  • Or, they could actually be reporting in earnest, reflecting the fact that President Obama has really gone too far, and even the progressives of Madison are scratching their heads.
.

Unlikely?

Not according to the Wall Street Journal, in an article entitled Not-So-Smooth Operator, in which Peggy Noonan states that Obama is increasingly coming across as devious and dishonest.  She reports that the “broad, stable, nonradical, non-birther right” is starting to dislike President Obama personally.  A dislike that is arising solely from Obama’s own behavior, that of an “operator who’s not operating in good faith.”
.
According to Noonan, this shift toward disliking President Obama started with his devious behavior over the contraception mandate, and continues to be fueled with recent events such as the open-mic conversation with Russian President Medvedev and with his personalization and manipulation of the the tragic death of Trayvon Martin.
.

Some of My Best Friends are Liberal

I am surrounded with liberals in Madison, WI, home of the University of Wisconsin, Madison.
I am surrounded with liberals among my relatives, many of whom are products of University propaganda machines.
I myself was a product of a University propaganda machine quite similar to UW Madison; the State University of New York at Stony Brook.   And yes, the propaganda worked at first.
.
I am aware of the fact that most liberals are very nice and well-intentioned people.
But I am also aware of the fact that a radical element has taken over leadership among liberals, an element that is extreme and dangerous, and which is leading the Democrat Party, a party which used to be equally good/bad as the Republican Party, to ridiculous and dangerous extremes.
.
I have confidence in the good people of this country, the majority, the non-radicals, on both right and left.  We have more in common with each other than we do with our respective far rights or far lefts.
80% of us pray regularly.  80% of us are broad, stable, and non-radical. 80% of us look for logic and for reason.
.

Broad, Stable, Non-radical, Right and/or Left

Caught in own snare

My fondness of, and my confidence in my “broad, stable, non-radical, non-Marxist left” friends, has led me to blog on conservative issues, laying out the logic and explaining some of the foundations of  conservative thought which I have unearthed during my recovery from my University brainwashing.  Confident that truth and logic wins over reasonable people, I chip away at the misinformation spread by conniving radical leaders like Pelosi and Obama.

.
Now, based on Peggy Noonan’s argument, Obama is actually doing the job of dismantling his agenda himself.  Much faster than we could dismantle the lies the left has been spreading.  Obama is shooting himself in the foot; he is stepping into his own snares.  I do not enjoy watching a man self-destruct, any man.  But it does give me hope for the non-radical, normal and healthy future of America; a future determined by the people, not by a radical dictator.
.
.

Back to Reality

Back to my Cap Times letter.

Democrats Voting in the Republican Primary?

.
I know that the editors of the Cap Times are not likely to be broad, stable, non-radical left types like my neighbors, friends and relatives.
.
Yes, I know, there’s a fourth possibility, the most likely one: that the Cap Times decided that support of Santorum would be most damaging to the upcoming Wisconsin Primary, and that by publishing my letter they would influence voters, both conservatives and also the liberals who plan to sneak in to manipulate the primary as well, to vote for Santorum.  They think that Santorum will have a lesser chance of defeating Obama in November.
.
But they, too, will soon be stepping into their own snares.
That’s what radicals do best.  Set snares for others, but get caught in them themselves.
.

An Invisible Player

And, most important, there is a invisible player, God.  And God has a wicked sense of humor.
I am watching political developments with great anticipation, as America continues to pray.
.
It would be wickedly satisfying to see the Constitution of the United States, which was based on the Ten Commandments and on Judeo-Christian morality, and which was written by the Founding Fathers centuries ago, still allowing us, the people, to take charge of our own destiny and to defeat the efforts of power-mongers on both sides.
.
The broad, stable, non-radicals of both right and left who value Christianity over Marxism, and who value real tolerance over imposition of radical values, could back a man like Rick Santorum, who does not advocate imposing his views on others, but advocates hands-off government.
.
Some think that Rick Santorum is too conservative.
But good, broad, stable, non-radical conservatives such as Rick Santorum (and such as me) do not try to legislate their views onto others.
They are tolerant.
Tolerant with limits: the Constitution of the United States defines the limits.
And that’s a very good thing.
.

Constitutional Limits

McNaughton: One Nation Under Socialism

The limits of the Constitution are Judeo-Christian limits.
These are the limits that radicals want to test and to reverse.
.

.

.

.
All Posts