Negotiating Wonderland

OR

TRUMP: To Dump or Not to Dump?

TOPSY-TURVY

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Note 4-9-18: For “To Dump or Not to Dump,” scroll to end of article

Negotiating Wonderland

“Negotiating Wonderland,” where everything is topsy-turvy, is what Donald Trump is doing, and what we all have to learn to do, in order to reinstate democracy and bring sanity back to the United States.

Wonderland

Wonderland, aside from being Lewis Carroll’s fictional land where everything is topsy-turvy and unexpected, it is also a great term for our modern global progressive culture, in which age-old values including democracy and religious freedom have been overturned, and political surprises, or Black Swans, surface faster than anyone can keep up with them. We are today living in a true Wonderland, where things change more quickly than ever before, most of us are struggling to keep up with the pace, and we question the wisdom of the giant social experiment that we were  railroaded into by previous administrations.

Negotiating It

Most people struggle to negotiate this Wonderland that has been forced on us.
Except for Donald Trump.
The Donald seems to be keeping up just fine, accomplishing the promises he made campaigning for President, proving that he is the conservative he claimed to be, and winning over more and more approval from the nation he represents as time goes on.
Donald, true to his business self, to his life-long experience as a negotiator, and to his own instructions in his book “The Art of the Deal,” is negotiating Wonderland, and he’s doing it very well.

NEGOTIATING PERILOUS CLIFFS NOW WITH A SHEPHERD

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Wonderland? Yes, Really.

Barack Obama invited this comparison by kicking off his didactic Presidency with a secretly held opulent celebration in 2009 themed on Alice in Wonderland, while ordinary Americans suffered economic hardship from the almost-depression of 2008.  At that time, it seemed inappropriate for the President to throw a glittering White House costume ball while the rest of the country was struggling with economy, unemployment, and bank bailouts.
So, Obama kept his lavish party secret for over two years.

(NOTE THE COLUMN OF SKULLS AT LEFT OF PHOTO)

Radical Change and “Cultural” War

Nobody Wants the Radical Change

BRAZEN SCANDALOUS MORAL VIOLATIONS

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After 8 years of Obama’s administration, it was pretty clear that many Americans were upset with the radical transformation of our “culture,” i.e. attempted eradication of many sensibilities that the Obama administration had railroaded in, they were sick of the scandalous morality, and were intent on fighting back.  There was so much discontent among mainstream Americans that 17 opposition candidates stepped forward to oppose the Obama Progressive Radical Agenda in the primaries prior to the election of 2016.

But most reasonable nice people, including 16 of the 17 candidates, were paralyzed by the Alinsky Tactics of the left.  Most nice people were intimidated and transfixed, staring like deer in the headlights at the barrage of abuse coming from the left, at a loss of how to proceed.

ONE LEFT STANDING

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The Truth of the Matter

The truth of the matter is that new times call for new measures.

Our gentlemanly Christian instincts serve us well in times of peace, when we are dealing with reasonable, similarly gentlemanly Christian allies.
But in times of war, we are forced to break out different tactics.
No more cards on the table.
No more transparency to all.
No more Mr. Nice Guy.
No more being played for a fool by people who mock our gentlemanly standards and use them against us  (Alinsky tactics).

And the other truth of the matter is that Donald Trump, despite occasional appearance, is really NOT a bully, but a gentleman who has learned how to survive and flourish in the real, difficult world.
A gentleman adept at dodging bullets and engaging in war.

Amazing Credentials

At the private military academy he attended (New York Military Academy, one of the oldest military schools in the United States), Donald Trump learned the history and art of war.  At the Wharton School of Business (America’s best business school 2017 , also outranked Harvard MBA ranking 2017), he learned world class business management.   And in the global business marketplace, Donald Trump excelled and succeeded. His successful business tactics included a certain amount of unpredictability and keeping things “close to the vest,” which any successful business executive will confirm is essential in a competitive world.

These tactics are not really new,  as Jesus instructs the Apostles in Matthew 10:16-20 :

Behold, I am sending you like sheep in the midst of wolves; so be shrewd as serpents and simple as doves.
But beware of people,^k for they will hand you over to courts and scourge you in their synagogues,
and you will be led before governors and kings for my sake as a witness before them and the pagans.
When they hand you over, do not worry about how you are to speak or what you are to say. You will be given at that moment what you are to say.
For it will not be you who speak but the Spirit of your Father speaking through you.

Dodging Bullets

When war has been declared on us, either by radical Islamic terrorists, or by progressive oppositional deep state resistance forces within our own country aiming to subvert our morals,  tactics have to change.
We have to call out and shed light on what the enemy is doing.
We have to dodge bullets.
And we certainly do NOT advertise our tactics pubicly for the enemy to read.

Anybody who has seen a World War II movie has noticed that combat soldiers do not walk slowly or majestically in a dignified way from place to place, but dart around zig-zagging, stopping and starting, changing direction, and taking cover frequently, in order to dodge bullets.

Think of Donald Trump, of his calling out of people, of his tweeting, and of his occasionally seemingly erratic behavior, not as being undignified, not as being illogical, but as calling out the enemy, shedding light on their atrocities, dodging their bullets, and keeping them busy trying to decode his intentions while he moves mountains behind the scenes.

Think of President Trump as being shrewd as a serpent and simple as a dove. 
Think of him as engaging Barack Obama’s, Hillary’s, and Soros’ Resistance with clever and misleading tactics of his own.
Think of the powerful effects of his psychological warfare, as he eats chocolate cake with Xi Jinping while hitting Syria with missle strikes, seemingly effortlessly on the back burner.

And realize that if President Trump is confusing you, he is also confusing the enemy.
Be grateful, pray for him, and wait to see the outcome.  So far, we have had nothing to regret, only to celebrate, since his inauguration.  Winston Churchill was equally complicated and perplexing.  And equally brilliant.

Warrior Yet Gentleman

In Donald Trump, behind the warrior dodging bullets, we still see many actions of a very gentlemanly Christian man who respects Judeo-Christian values.
This is a man who opposes abortion and loves babies.
He prays (including in the Oval Office), and reveres God.
He supports the Constitution, as written by our Christian founders.
He respects our flag.
He includes and loves all Americans.
He refuses to divide or to favor.
He calls all bluffs.
He offers wise and fair compromises, including on DACA.
And his patience for out of control opponents like Kim Jon Un is legendary.
This is a man who knows how to be decent to anyone who is also prepared to be decent, yet knows where to draw the lines and when to call scoundrels out.

But What About Access Hollywood?

There are definitely some things from Donald Trump’s past that could make one nervous, like his womanizing reputation, illustrated by the Hollywood Access recording of 2005, 13 years ago, in which he talked about grabbing women.

But as Pastor Jeffries has said, “We knew we were not electing an altar boy.”

Also, people do change, and we certainly, as Christians, do give them second chances.  We even gave a pass to a previous Democrat who sullied the Oval Office with sexual misconduct.

Consider also the possibility that the persona Donald Trump puts on in Hollywoood, among half-naked dressed-to-kill Hollywood starlets, in private conversation with Hollywood men, might be different from his real persona and his real views when the company of men and women who dress and behave like Christian gentlemen and ladies.  The successful businessman who adopts the “language” that each group understands, and tells people what they want to hear knows how to “make friends and influence people.”

Whether 13 years ago Donald Trump was trying to impress the Hollywood boys with his lewd suggestions, and whether Donald Trump had some bad attitudes towards women in the past is not the main question.   What is important is who he is, how he behaves, and what he says now in 2018.

Forgiving Donald

Let us also point out that forgiving Donald Trump for a rude locker room suggestion made over a decade ago is much less than we routinely forgive and overlook when it comes to progressives like the Obamas, the Clintons, the Kennedys, and many others, whose transgressions were not words that disgraced the Presidency, but included criminal actions and caused deaths.

Our Christian world is filled with the stories of sinners who repented and went on to live lives of great saintliness and accomplishment.  St. Paul practiced genocide against Christians, St. Matthew was a thieving tax collector, and St. Augustine was a shameless philanderer.
Nobody is suggesting we canonize Donald Trump just yet, but he has been declared by the Heritage Foundation to have achieved  64% of their recommended conservative agenda in just one year, better even than Ronald Regan’s (wonderful) achievement of 49% in his first year.  He has also become the most pro-life President we have ever had.  In my book, his pro-life record alone forgives much rude language.

According to the Heritage Foundation, Trump hasn’t just focused on one agenda area, but he and his team has pushed through administrative moves on foreign policy, deregulation, immigration, tax reform and health care.  These moves are often ignored by much of the media, which is still selling out their profession to favor the progressive agenda, rather than providing honest news coverage.

The Trump administration has scored 81 major achievements and slashed at least 11 major legacy items of former President Barack Obama.

So let’s consider forgiving Donald Trump one rude and immature comment made 13 years ago.

More Accusations Bound to Come

Of course, this will not be the last issue raised by the media, as evidenced by the now proven to be false Steele dossier paid for by Hillary Clinton.
And there are bound to be numerous additional accusations by the left ias they try to stop the Trump administration.
Just like they used in the past, against numerous other good men like Herman Cain in 2011.
We must follow our Constitution, we must allow everyone due process, we must remember that all are innocent until proven guilty, and this principle includes everyone, even the miscreants in Hollywood, whose heads have been rolling in the recent wave of #MeToo accusations, made without even waiting for due process.
In a just world, we would pass legislation that punishes false accusers by assigning the proposed penalty to the accuser, as was done in the case of Susanna in the Book of Daniel   

What Next?

We need to get over all jitters and finally and completely trust President Trump.
Anyone who balks at this suggestion should ask themselves whether there is anything Donald Trump has achieved in the past year that you disapprove of?
When each and every frantic panic was over, Trump had done the right thing, and we had not always guessed his plan at the outset.  Guess what?

This is good.  The opposition is also struggling to figure out the plan.

What Needs to Be Done NOW :

• IGNORE ALL ACCUSATIONS AGAINST TRUMP. We have heard many shocking accusations against him during the last two years, none of them have been borne out to be true. The left is adept at smearing and lying and accusing, but ignores their own faults.
• LISTEN TO DONALD TRUMP.  He is giving us instructions every day.  He has told us he needs more Republicans elected in November 2018.  He has even announced his own campaign well in advance for 2020, appointed a stellar campaign manager, and will be using his campaign organization to help elect loyal conservatives in November 2018.
  
• FOLLOW DONALD TRUMP ON TWITTER, check his messages every day, and believe what he tweets.
  His tweets are routinely ultimately proved true, no matter how far-fetched they may have seemed at the time of the tweet.  President Trump’s tweets provide a succinct daily summary of non-fake news for anyone who wants it “from the horse’s mouth,” and they place the President’s enemies on notice with fair warning, letting them know the President means business, as they did with Little Rocket Man, Kim Jon Un. This form of direct and blunt communication makes many uncomfortable, but its benefits are often underestimated.
• GET REPUBLICANS INTO OFFICE IN 2018, so the conservative agenda which Trump is advocating, and which is the only hope for America today, can be passed in this climate of Democrat madness and resistance, in which Democrats will not vote for anything just to spite Trump.  They would not even vote for the DACA they claimed to want, because they could not get 100% of their way, in a government in which both House and Senate and the Presidency are controlled by their opposition, and not a single Democrat voted for our recent tax cuts!
• HELP TRUMP GET RID OF THE DEEP STATE, those officials in government who oppose the directives of their boss the President, and who follow instead the progressive values they prefer, values which they pushed under their previous boss Barack Obama, & values which they continue to push through nefarious channels such as Antifa and the Deep State, with funding by oligarchs like George Soros.
  One way of helping to get rid of the “Deep State” is by donating generously to organizations like Judicial Watch, who are citizen watchdogs who look out for the Constitution and for accountability in government.
  
• HELP TRUMP WITH PRAYER- pray for his family, for our nation, for wisdom for him.
  Pray at Planned Parenthood, pray at Church, pray at home.
• JOIN THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN, which was just announced last week.  The Trump 2020 campaign will not only work on electing Trump in 2020, but plans to work on electing good Republican candidates to positions in 2018.
  CONTRIBUTE to Donald Trump’s  campaign.
  VOLUNTEER to work for his campaign.
• STAY INFORMED and support conservative radio, TV, publications and organizations.  When an organization is attacked unfairly by the left, contribute or join that organization. Contribute to citizen watchdog groups like Judicial Watch, and to local conservative politicians.  Join the NRA, whether you plan to own a gun or not, simply because the left has been attacking this organization unfairly and heaping false blame on good law abiding people.
• SPEAK OUT IN PUBLIC, converse with your conservative friends in restaurants, participate in online discussions.
  Do not hide, do not cringe, and do not tow the politically correct line.
  When courageous people speak the truth, this gives others courage, and the movement snowballs.
• SPEAK OUT AGAINST the subjugation of our children, our schools, our universities, our google searches, our Facebook pages, our news media, and our entire lives to the politically correct, scientifically and morally nonsensical agenda now being pushed by the left.
  
• Most important of all, we should PUSH BACK ON THE KILLING OF OUR CHILDREN- the one million aborted each year- by donating to and volunteering at local maternity programs, praying outside Planned Parenthood, and pressuring politicians to support pro-life causes. A NATION THAT KILLS IT’S OWN CHILDREN CANNOT PROSPER.
  VOLUNTEER for pro-life organizations and maternity homes that help women in need

We Are At War

Make no mistake, we are at war

The rise of amorality in Politics, the pernicious infiltration of our government and our educational institutions by progressive activists who manipulate and circumvent the voice of American voters, and the now active attacks on the Presidency by numerous agencies in government, all constitute a very real danger to the founding principles of our nation.
The voice of the people, the Presidency itself, and the principles laid out in the Constitution are all being subverted, and we are headed for a Constitutional Crisis.

According to Charles Hurt, there is now a new standard for self-governance in America, established by a powerful big government bureaucracy “which must conduct a massive, sprawling, limitless investigation into any and all aspects of the president we pick.”  Apparently limitless investigation of a candidate selected by the people like Trump (as well as elimination of Democrat candidates like Sanders) was always the plan.

President Trump cannot fight this alone, the entire nation has to support him and back him.  As we speak, the corrupted intelligence agencies of our nation are ganging up against our President.

Former FBI Deputy Director McCabe has been caught lying to the Department of Justice and is blaming President Trump, instead of the Obama-appointed Inspector General Horowitz, who investigated him and recommended his firing.  Fired FBI director Comey, who had released classified information and had mishandled the Clinton email investigation by exonerating her before interviewing her and by failing to interview her under oath, has also been gunning for President Trump, accusing him of repeatedly and inappropriately pressuring Comey to back off in the FBI’s investigation of Michael Flynn.  And now John Brennan, former head of the CIA, has just released a venomous anti-President Trump tirade on twitter, which was followed by a Samantha Powers tweet stating that “Not a good idea to piss off John Brennan.”

WHAT PUBLIC AND MISPLACED VENOM FROM A SENIOR CIVIL SERVANT!

By all appearances, senior members of the intelligence community of the US are in collusion with numerous progressives and the courts, attempting to subvert the legitimate President and his rightful government.

It has now become clear that progressive attempts at “transforming” our nation to their own experimental ideals have not been limited to legal and democratic methods involving persuasion, but that a malevolent network of dirty players have infiltrated our educational systems, our news media, many branches of our government, most internet and social media platforms, and countless other areas of our lives.

We must roll up our sleeves, and get busy supporting the President we elected with our actions and with our prayers in order to reinstate democracy and bring sanity back to the United States.

We must involve God and Judeo-Christian morality (both of which were incorporated into our founding and into our Constitution) in our battle, if we hope to have any luck against the pervasive and destructive forces of progressivism that have so permeated our nation today.

Elections 2016 (and 2014)

or

Taming the Black Swan

or

Selling Out vs Sticking to Principles

Back to Politics

Despite the fact that this blog was originally established for the purpose of discussing and defending traditional ethics and morality in our modern culture, we keep digressing into politics.

This may be fitting, since what is politics, after all, if not the interaction of human beings on an organized group level; an interaction that certainly ought to be subject to the same rules of morality and decency that apply to individual human interactions?

And since what goes around comes around applies to our personal lives, guess what?  What goes around comes around applies to politics as well.  (The expression means that bad things you do come back to bite you later, and the good things you do come back to reward you later.)

Readers Demand Political Philosophy

Readers seem to know this, and as elections approach, they keep returning to those old articles here which discuss political philosophy, which explore the crucial interconnection between morality and the State (i.e., interconnection between Church and State).

Such discussions are not commonly available in the public arena in the present political atmosphere, which is so often controlled by fear of political bullies like the Freedom From Religion Foundation and their ilk, who attempt to eradicate all mention of right and wrong from the public forum. These bullies who attack religion are effectively advocating the absence of all morality from government, from law, and from public life.

So after a hiatus following the ethically dubious 2012 Presidential election in which Barack Obama purchased votes by bribery with Obama-phones and other lollipops, and in which conservatives tossed the vote by staying home in disgust, this blogger returns again to discussion of politics, of coming elections, and of election strategies for Elections 2016.

Why the Hiatus?

The results of the 2012 Presidential election made clear several important facts, which required some time to resolve:

• The people had spoken, and the Obama administration now had four more years to deliver on its campaign promises.  The United States is, after all, a democracy.  The fair loser steps aside gracefully and lets the wheels of democracy turn.
• Those people who were foolish enough to vote for Obama needed to experience more Obama consequences, to experience a rise in personal misery index, before they could be persuaded to vote for someone more responsible who does not promise lollipops and who does not lie.  And 2013/14 certainly provided ample rise in personal misery index generated by government; now even Democrats are calling Obama incompetent and are distancing themselves from him before the 2014 elections.  Meanwhile, we conservatives take an imposed rest and simply watch the inevitable  and painful implosion. We don’t enjoy it any more than parents enjoy watching their teens making painful mistakes.
  What goes around comes around. But it takes time.  We all hurt, we all suffer, but nothing can be done to circumvent some suffering in this life.
• The Republican establishment, which was foolish enough to cheat in order to change Republican convention rules so they could nominate their favorite Compromise Candidate, Mitt Romney, needed to figure out that there is a limit to the degree of compromise their conservative supporters will tolerate before they rebel.  There was great surprise and shock in November 2012, when 4 million registered Republicans failed to come to the polls, handing the election to Barack Obama.

So now two years have passed, and we have experienced some of the consequences of the 2012 election.  We have experienced more of Obama’s administration, ObamaCare failures, VA scandals, IRS scandals, implosion of Iraq, border crises, and numerous other debacles.  Establishment Republicans have experienced 4 million registered Republicans staying home from the polls, and losing the election.
During all of which, Nero fiddled as Rome burned.
Political puzzle pieces have been falling into place.
We need to redefine how we approach politics. 

So now it’s time to end the hiatus and time to address the future.
Back into politics!

Confusion Reigns

First observation on returning to politics in 2014: confusion reigns.

Democrats are suffering from the deluge of scandals befalling President Obama as the fruits of his erroneous policies and his lies mature. Today, 58% of Americans, including 30% of Democrats, say that the Obama administration is incompetent at managing the government.  Now, even New York Times correspondents are saying that the Obama administration’s ebola response is another example of Obama not running a competent government.  Liberals have begun to acknowledge Obama’s incompetence.  

Republicans are suffering from highly disfunctional infighting, seemingly incapable of choosing between continuing moral compromise with the opposition, and their fear of unpopularity if they choose responsible conservative policy.

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Support is at an all-time low for both parties, and nobody seems to know how to attract the independent voters from the middle.
Only 24% of American voters identify as Republicans, 31% as Democrats, and a whopping 43% identify as Independents.

This bears repeating: a whopping 43% of Americans identify as Independents!
There are way more independents than Democrats.
There are way more independents than Republicans.

THE LEADING POLITICAL FACTION IN THE UNITED STATES TODAY IS INDEPENDENT.

What does it mean to be Independent?
Being Independent means that nobody tells these voters what to think; they think for themselves, and they owe allegiance to neither party.
If Independents could only agree on a candidate, there would be a landslide election and an Independent victory!

Potential Strategies

How can the two major parties recruit from the 43% of  uncommitted electorate in the middle?
With more lollipops and promises?
With an offer of responsible tough government appealing to those who have suffered enough in this economy?
Will a third party succeed in stealing the election?
Is the time ripe, with broadening disgust with both major parties, for the introduction of a third party?

Birth of the Republican Party

Looking at history, the founding of the present Republican party occurred under similar conditions, and resulted in the election of Abraham Lincoln to the Presidency.

The Whigs seemed incapable of coping with national crisis over slavery, so the Republican Party was established (in Wisconsin!) with the primary goal of opposing slavery. (Yes, contrary to what today’s progressives want you to think, the Republican Party was the first to oppose slavery!) The Whigs lost power, and Abraham Lincoln, a Republican, was elected.

So there is historical precedent for the birth of a third party; provided the nation is sufficiently disgusted with the two existing parties.

Are we sufficiently disgusted with the two existing parties today?

Can a third party rise to the occasion in present divided times and succeed in election 2016?

Or would a third party simply divide the conservative vote and hand victory to Democrats?

The Republican Split Today

The Conservative Dilemma

With four factions advocating four different approaches, the solution to this conservative dilemma is not obvious.
The above four approaches are mutually exclusive, and getting conservatives to agree on one approach would pose quite the obstacle.

• Those favoring the Buckley Rule would nominate someone like Mitt Romney or Chris Christie again.
• Those favoring the Limbaugh Rule would nominate someone like Scott Walker or Ben Carson.
• Those favoring the Third Party Option would replace the Republican Party by a group like the Tea Party.
• Article V supporters, if successful, would provide an opportunity for radical change and decentralization of government, returning much power to the states and reducing the power of the federal government.

The first option (Buckley Rule) has already been tried and failed in Election 2012.

Many conservatives favor the second option (Limbaugh Rule) right now. Stick to your principles an nominate the most conservative candidate in the primaries.

But as discontent with Washington continues to grow, it becomes more and more likely that some Americans may abandon business as usual and may opt for the more startling last two options- third party or even overriding Washington DC via Article V.

One thing is certain- the 4 million disgusted registered Republicans who stayed home in November of 2012 are not likely to change their minds and get back on board with John Boehner and the Buckley Rule.

It is much more likely that an additional 4 million will join the first 4 million in boycotting the Republican establishment’s cowardly and ever-compromising path towards defeat.  Yet staying home OR voting for a third party can hand the election to Democrats, even if they do not have majority support.

So What’s a Conservative to Do in 2014/2016 ?

There will be much discussion, much angst, and

much disagreement among conservatives over which of the above four approaches should be followed in 2016.
There will be even more anxiety over whether the guaranteed lack of unity will defeat us, handing victory to progressives.

But an examination of history, an examination of the forces that determine the fate of nations and of elections, reveals that perhaps we need not worry.
There is a simple and practical approach that may reassure those so very worried about the future.
Hint: it involves simply sticking to your principles and not selling out.
-The approach the Almighty might suggest if anybody bothered to ask Him.

The Determinants of History

What determines history?
What determines the fate of a nation or the fate of an election?

It may surprise some to hear that the determinants of history, the elements that identify or determine the nature of events or that fix their outcome, are not usually voters, nor are they politicians.

Many historians acknowledge that much of history is determined not by careful planning and strategy, but by fluke events called Black Swans.

Black Swan theory is taught at universities, and Black Swan theory was discussed by the New York Times in connection with the  9/11 Commission, which sought “to provide a ‘full and complete accounting’ of the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 and recommendations as to how to prevent such attacks in the future.”

Black Swan theory is not a joke; it’s a sobering and probable reality.

So when we talk about the 2016 election, it is wise to consider whether a Black Swan event will be the determinant of the election, and to ask whether it is possible for us or for our politicians to influence that Black Swan event.

What IS a Black Swan?

How do we define a Black Swan?

The Cambridge Japanese Journal of Political Science refers to these unpredictable big events that shape human history, or Black Swans (emphasis mine):

The nonlinear dynamical process of self-organized criticality provides a new ‘theory of history’ that explains a number of unresolved anomalies: Why are the really big events in human history usually unpredictable? Why is it impossible to anticipate sudden political, economic, and social changes? Why do distributions of historical data almost always contain a few extreme events that seem to have had a different cause from all the rest? Why do so many of our ‘lessons of history’ fail to predict important future events? As people, organizations, and nations become increasingly sensitive to each other’s behavior, trivial occurrences sometimes propagate into sudden changes. Such events are unpredictable because in the self-organized criticality environment that characterizes human history, the magnitude of a cause often is unrelated to the magnitude of its effect.

Nassim Taleb is a Black Swan specialist.  He is a scientist, essayist, businessman, mathematical trader and scientist-philosopher who studies the epistemology of randomness and the multidisciplinary problems of uncertainty and knowledge, particularly in the large-impact hard-to-predict rare events called “Black Swans”.

Taleb seeks to create a “platform for a new scientific-minded public intellectual dealing with social and historical events — in replacement to the ‘fooled by randomness’ historian and the babbling journalistic public intellectual.”

(Nassim Saleb feels morally bound as a professional philosopher and historian to acknowledge that history is driven by Black Swan events.)

In his book Learning to Expect the Unexpected, Taleb defines the Black Swan like this:

A black swan is an outlier, an event that lies beyond the realm of normal expectations. Most people expect all swans to be white because that’s what their experience tells them; a black swan is by definition a surprise. Nevertheless, people tend to concoct explanations for them after the fact, which makes them appear more predictable, and less random, than they are. Our minds are designed to retain, for efficient storage, past information that fits into a compressed narrative. This distortion, called the hindsight bias, prevents us from adequately learning from the past.

“Much of what happens in history”, he notes, “comes from ‘Black Swan dynamics’, very large, sudden, and totally unpredictable ‘outliers’, while much of what we usually talk about is almost pure noise. Our track record in predicting those events is dismal; yet by some mechanism called the hindsight bias we think that we understand them. We have a bad habit of finding ‘laws’ in history (by fitting stories to events and detecting false patterns); we are drivers looking through the rear view mirror while convinced we are looking ahead.”

So when it comes to elections, whether they be 2014, 2016, or any other election, it would be wise to remind ourselves that Black Swans are often determinants of the outcome.

That’s why nobody can predict election results.

By definition, a Black Swan is an unexpected and surprising historical event that plays a giant role in altering the course of history, yet could not have been predicted, and is not pre-planned by politicians or governments.

Role of the Black Swan in History

Historians and economists both acknowledge the role of Black Swans in human history.

There are many examples of Black Swan events in history, recent and ancient.
Remember the definition: nobody saw it coming, nobody could have seen it coming, it could not be planned for.

Some examples of Black Swan events:

• Terrorist attacks of 9/11
• Victory of American colonists against Imperial England in the Revolutionary War
• Outbreak of World War I (as a result of Archduke Ferdinand of Austria’s driver taking a wrong turn)
• Unexpected rise of Hitler
• Dissolution of the Soviet Union without a single battle in 1991
• Recent spread of Islamic fundamentalism
• Internet bubble
• Housing bubble
• Stock market crashes
• Arab spring
• Surprising defusing of the Syria situation in 2013
• Christianization of Europe by Constantine
• Battle of Lepanto victory (which prevented the conquering of Europe by Muslims against terrific odds)
• Attack on Pearl Harbor

Biblical examples of Black Swan events:

• Moses
• The Exodus
• Crossing of the Red Sea,
• David’s victory over Goliath
• Conversion of Nineveh
• Conversion of Nebuchadnezzar (see also)
• Life, death and Resurrection of Jesus Christ
• Conversion of St. Paul

Aside: The Bible is a valuable source of political instruction for those who realize the wisdom contained in it.

The above examples of Black Swan events occurred against all odds, were so unlikely that they could not previously be imagined, and they changed the course of human history dramatically.

Black Swans- Good or Bad?

Black Swans can be either good or bad.
To qualify as a Black Swan, an event simply has to lie beyond the realm of normal expectations.
The Christianization of Europe was good.
The terror attacks of 9/11 were bad.
Both were Black Swan events.

Black Swan events can occur not only in politics and in global events, but in our personal lives as well.  One unexpected event frequently steers the subsequent course of a person’s entire lifetime.

Taming the Black Swan

Once one accepts the existence and powerful role of Black Swan events in human history, the next logical question becomes- can we possibly prepare for these events and/or influence these events?

By human reason, no.
By definition we cannot expect and prepare for the unexpected.

However, in a nation like ours, in which 80% of citizens believe in God, 80% of citizens pray daily and believe that God answers their prayers, in a nation whose government has been founded on the inalienable rights given to man by God, in a nation structured after Christian morality, it is not unreasonable to bring into this discussion the interaction between God and History, and the interconnection between Church and State.
And this changes the picture dramatically.

In fact, when we acknowledge the interconnection between God and the world, Black Swan events become more easily understood as the intervention of God and of Satan in human affairs.

This view does not refuse to discuss the battle between of Good and Evil battle in our world.  In times of history like the present one, while ISIS mercilessly terrorizes Europe without intervention,  events becomes less mystifying when viewed in their proper light.

Back to Who Is In Charge?

Does this mean that we are helpless pawns at the mercy of warring supernatural forces of Good and Evil, much like the ancient Greeks who believed they were subject to the capricious whims of their warring and jealous gods?

No!
Unlike the ancient Greeks, we have the ability to steer supernatural events indirectly through our personal choices of good and evil and through our prayers.  We have a direct line to God via saintly lives and prayer, through which we can access the most powerful forces in the universe.  This is the power God has given to human beings. A power, incidentally, resented tremendously by Satan.

Unfortunately, some of us also choose to have a direct line to Satan. The Enemy is unleashed and empowered whenever we shun God’s directives and defy God, particularly when we try to be little gods ourselves.

And so, through moral choices and through prayer, we humans do have great influence on the war between Good and Evil.
Why do you think that Pope Francis’s reaction to the crisis in Syria was to call for global Adoration?
The holy man kwows how to fight spiritual warfare.

Satan always baits us with promises and with lies, but ultimately he delivers misery to all human beings, particularly to those who fell for his ploys.  But God limits Satan’s power, and teaches us how to chain the Evil one, by following the guidelines left to us first by the Ten Commandments, and then by Jesus Christ.

And so the mysterious struggles of Good and Evil are played out in our world, while many of us are unaware that victory is really within our grasp and that we have much more power over world events than we realize.

The Solution

or

Taming the Black Swan

The solution is simple;

• Stay close to God through prayer
• Trust God with patience
• Play by God’s rules, even in the face of impossible odds (God does the rest)

Simple formula for Elections

The formula for victory is simple- vote for the wisest and most moral candidate, whether you are voting in elections or in primaries, and forget about arguments on capturing independents in the middle by making moral compromises.

Follow the Limbaugh rule, not only when voters are fed up with liberalism, but ALL the time.
It worked for Abe Lincoln, it worked  for Ronald Reagan, and it worked for Saint John Paul II in the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Most of America (Independents) needs to reclaim a political party and make it our own.
Both existing parties have failed us abysmally.
Democrats have completely sold out Christian values by promoting abortion and redefining marriage.

In 2014, Independents should go to the polls and vote for Republicans, because they oppose abortion (killing over a million citizens each year), and represent fiscal responsibility as well.
Perhaps the Republican party might be willing to shift to the right.

Do your homework; use a neutral source like BALLOTPEDIA.

In 2016, if the Republican establishment resists a shift to conservative values and if the field is littered with numerous conservative candidates who split the vote up as they did in 2012, conservatives should not fear a brokered convention in which many conservatives are pared down to a few with numerous rounds of ballots.
We should not let the Republican establishment force the Buckley Rule, as they did in 2012, forcing the nomination of Mitt Romney against the majority of their party, who supported conservatives.

A message to the Republican establishment: don’t sell out your base and your ethics in some misguided attempt to capture some Independent votes from the middle.
Most Independents want a shift towards conservatism, reality and responsible behavior.

In 2016, if the Republican establishment tries to force liberalism and the “Buckley rule” as they have in the past, we move to a third, more moral and more conservative party.

Independents think, they admire justice, and they rally behind upstanding candidates.
Independents come in riding on black swans.

Reporting History

Most historians separate history and philosophy/theology into distinct and separate compartments, and only rarely do they acknowledge that human beliefs exert a powerful influence on human behavior and on human history.

It is even more rare for an historian to acknowledge that those humans actions which stem from religious belief (such as prayer or such as heroic action) can actually be effective in dealing with a global or political problem.
The political correctness of today does not permit the inclusion of God, moral choices, or prayer in any analysis.

But those who take their heads out of the sand and realize that this nation was founded on Christian principles and that this is still a nation of God-fearing and freedom-loving people in both parties, will realize that this nation’s history has been and will continue to be be steered by ethics, by prayer, and by God.
Unless the minority, the radical progressives who want to eradicate any mention of God from our lives and from our history, are allowed to intimidate the rest of us into inaction and into silence.

The reading of history cannot be partial and biased to exclude the fact that this nations was shaped by Christians, still consists of Christians, and that it’s history has been guided and protected by a very good God.
The role of the supernatural must be acknowledged, if Truth is to be known.
The secularization of human history neglects to consider man’s strongest motivations, denies his noble struggle between the Truth and the Father of Lies, and dismisses his most powerful ally – the Almighty.

Col 2:8 See to it that no one captivate you with an empty, seductive philosophy according to human tradition, according to the elemental powers of the world and not according to Christ.

Interconnection Between Church and State

The interconnection suggested here between Church and State is not the top-down dictation of moral values by Executive Order that is being attempted by President Obama, dictating what newly invented progressive morality the citizens of the United States must follow.  Nor is it a government-imposed State Religion imposed from above.

The interconnection is a democratic one.

When it comes to refining the relationship between government and religion, or between Church and State, the key is for ethical values to flow from the bottom up, not from the top down.

Nobody wants a specific government-imposed religion. But people clearly do want a code of morality and ethics on which most reasonable citizens can agree.

Instead of eliminating morality altogether from public life, and instead of government (King Obama) dictating his own brand of morality, citizens need to vote their personal religious moral beliefs into law.
The Constitution provides the mechanism by which this fundamentally Christian nation, still identifying itself as 80% Christian, can choose representatives in government who reflect their ethical beliefs.

An Optimistic Future

When the interconnection between Church and State is implemented, not from the top down, but  from the grass roots up,
when we all pray and go to the polls and vote for what is right and what is moral, our nation will heal and will get back on the right track.

David will slay Goliath, and Red Sea will part.

That power is in our hands.
We can marshal powerful forces into play that could never be predicted or imagined on a human level alone.

We can steer the Black Swans- provided we don’t throw away the reins.

Related Posts:

The Missing Link – Redefining How We Approach Politics

Pope Francis Takes On Obama

Political Puzzle Pieces Falling into Place

Enjoying the Progress? Join the Prayer

Global Adoration- Say What?

NSA Spying and French Republicans – Any Connection?

What’s a “French Republican?”

“French Republicans” is a term coined recently to describe Republicans who appear to act like Democrats.
These conflicted individuals are also referred to as “Establishment,” “Republican in Name Only” (RINO), and “Country-Club Republicans.”

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Speaker of the House Boehner is one example of this group; elected to oppose ObamaCare, yet seemingly unwilling to support the de-funding of ObamaCare.  He seems to have abandoned Republican values in favor of playing golf with President Obama.

There has recently been a rash of such abandonment of conservative values among Republicans, resulting in a serious split in the Republican party.  A split so serious that many serious conservatives are considering abandoning the Republican party altogether, and are considering extreme measures such as U.S. citizens overriding their Senate and their Congress, using Article V of the US Constitution.  (Details at Political Puzzle Pieces Falling into Place.)

Motivations of “French Republicans”

Some imply that “French Republicans” fail to fight for conservative values because they don’t want to risk their comfortable, elegant, luxurious, “French” Washington positions and lifestyles.

The name “French Republican” could also refer to the relative failure of the French Revolution,  which failed to achieve its goals and at times degenerated into a chaotic bloodbath.  The French Revolution quickly gave way to the rule of Napoleon Bonaparte, and new despots replaced old despots.  So the term could also refer to the disastrous strategy of continual compromise that is now being used by “French Republicans.”

Possible New Motivation

Today, the Wall Street Journal revealed a much broader National Security Agency (NSA) Surveillance Reach than previously acknowledged.
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This recent climate of government scandal,which has exposed the extent of government spying on innocent US citizens without warrant, combined with the Obama administration’s growing reputation for the use of intimidation and “Chicago tactics,”  now makes it reasonable to wonder whether there could be a connection between NSA spying and “French Republicans.”

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In other words, we wonder whether “French Republicans” could be acting “French” not because they want a spoiled lifestyle, nor because they fail to recognize that continual compromise is a bad policy, but because they or their families are being blackmailed and/or threatened by a corrupt Obama administration.

The NSA is monitoring 75% of all internet traffic!

Have YOU emailed anything to a friend recently that you don’t want on the front page of the New York Times?