Is It Over Yet?

So, last night, Romney swept 5 states and may have picked up as many as 200 delegates out of the 231 up for grabs.

Romney needs 1144 delegates to win.
As of last night, he has 844, according to the Associated Press.

Associated Press numbers:

Candidate Number of
Percentage of Total
Romney 844 37%
Conservatives: 476 21%
Santorum 260 11%
Gingrich 137 6%
Paul 79 3%
Delegates still up for grabs
in future primaries
966 42%

Remaining Primaries:

May 8 – 132 delegates up for grabs, 55 from NC
May 15 – 63 delegates up for grabs, 35 from NE
May 22 – 81 delegates up for grabs, 45 from KY
If Romney got 100% of the delegates from May 8-22, the total would be 1120, still short of the 1144 he needs.
May 29 – 155 delegates up for grabs, all from TX
Jun 5 – 299 delegates up for grabs, 172 from CA
Jun 26 – 40 delegates up for grabs, all from UT


When will it be over?

Judging from the numbers above, at earliest it will be over on May 29, and only if Texas, which has winner-takes-all, goes for Romney.  Previously, Texas was likely to lean toward a Tea Party conservative like Santorum.
More likely, it will not be over until Jun 5, when California votes.
It is still possible that that this could go to a brokered convention, although much less likely after Tue, Apr 24th.

Answer: It will not be over until May 29 or perhaps June 5th.

Unless Newt and Paul are persuaded to quit before then.

An Interesting Possibility:

  • Say Santorum has quit (so far, he has actually “suspended” his campaign).
  • Say Gingrich quits this week (the possibility has been mentioned).
  • Say Ron Paul sticks it out to the end, as he has promised.
  • Then, say Romney falls short of the 1144 delegates he needs for the nomination (we’ve calculated above that he is likely to struggle to get to that number soon).

Will Ron Paul single-handedly be able to force Romney into a brokered convention?
Somebody should be interviewing Ron Paul and reporting on his intentions.

President Harding had only 20% of the leading candidate’s votes in 1920, yet he ultimately became President.
This will be an exciting election to watch.
Is it to be President Romney, President Paul, or President Obama?
Or will Gingrich stay, and Santorum un-suspend, and all go into a very exciting brokered convention?

The Bottom Line

Of course, probability is on the side of a Romney nomination and a Romney-Obama fight.
In which case, I plan to put all my energies behind Romney.

May God steer us wherever America needs to go.